With The Number Of Covid-19 Cases Rising, Should India Brace For Another Covid-19 Wave? What Will Be The Impact On The Economy If So?

Could Covid-19 be making a comeback?

The thought is both frightening, concerning and worrying. Going by the numbers, India reported today there is a significant jump in the daily Covid-19 cases standing at 7,840 new infections as compared to the day before, where a total of 5,676 cases were reported – taking the total tally to 4,47,76,002. According to the health ministry data, the active infections stand at 40,215.

In fact, the last two months have been somewhat confusing as many found themselves experiencing cold, cough, fever and bad throat and thus the dreaded question – could it be Covid-19 or just a spell of seasonal flu?

However, with the number of cases being reported from different parts of the country come the memories of the Covid-19 pandemic days enough to inflict a sense of deja vu and dread.

So what really could be happening?

The problem is the uncannily identical symptoms of the H3N2 influenza virus and the coronavirus — more specifically, Omicron‘s latest sub-lineage XBB.1.16 

With the onset of fever, it is enough to induce a sense of panic; a growing trend of calling doctors, teleconsultations and even self-medication is on the rise. However, in most cases, as has been seen, the symptoms may last less than a week for a few, but in others, it may take longer – as many as three weeks to get some relief.

What Has Been The Trend Reported So Far?

The trend over the last month definitely doesn’t predict a good sign. After declining sharply for almost a year, India’s daily cases of Covid-19 have shot up, and the total active cases have inched up too. The rising trend may continue as testing increases.

To avoid being caught unawares, the government has directed hospitals to run mock drills and be prepared with essential drugs, beds, medical equipment, and oxygen supplies. Genomic sequencing is getting a renewed push to identify new strains, and testing is being ramped up in areas with a surge in cases.

One question does pop up – did the threat of Covid -19 really ebb? The cases may have been few and between, but virologists and epidemiology experts have repeatedly warned that Covid-19 is here to stay, and Omicron’s XBB.1.16 sub-lineage is just the latest challenge thrown at us.

So What Changed And How?

This time things are different; what has been noticed so far is the remarkably higher prevalence of the H3N2 virus.

While seasonal flu periodically appears between December and March and again during the monsoon months, it has reportedly become more aggressive this year. 

While there have been stray incidents of deaths among elderly patients with co-morbidities, at the same time, the fight has been hard for others, with persistent cough and fever over weeks. The high cost of diagnostic tests is yet another hurdle in discovering the prevalence of the H3N2 virus, and most labs charge upwards of INR4,000 for such tests.

Experts have pointed out that a critical reason for the rise in influenza cases is an “immunity gap” in the face of a resurgent flu virus. Viruses must also fight for survival, as in most of the living world. Over the last two years, the SARS-CoV-2 or coronavirus wrestled a dominant position, relegating the flu virus to the margins.

Using masks and hand hygiene limited the scope for transmitting viruses in general. To illustrate this point – flu in the US was at an all-time low during 2020-21; however, as cases of Covid-19 declined over the last few months, the flu virus seems to be regaining lost ground. In India, too, this “immunity gap” is now getting covered.

Predicting Virus Trajectory

Past experiences show that predicting the trajectory of the virus is not entirely doable. While the current situation remains fluid, medical experts opine that there is no worrying trend at the moment.

Vaccine boosters and wearing masks in crowded areas are the best bet for older adults with co-morbidities. For others, memory cells induced by vaccines and stored in the bone marrow get activated whenever the body is exposed to a pathogen or a virus and should work to stave off the virus infections. 

Can The Virus Assume A More Lethal Form?

Vipin Vashishtha, a paediatrician, who has deeply studied the coronavirus, put in a tweet thread – the SARS-CoV-2 virus has adopted a new strategy to evade T-cell immunity by inducing more mutations in the non-spike regions.

XBB.1.16 and its newer sub-lineage more efficiently block the communication between virus-infected cells and T-cells, making it difficult for T-cells to detect and target infected cells, thus allowing the virus to replicate, spread unhinderedly, and persist longer in the body,” he says. 

If SARS-CoV-2 succeeds in its new strategy, Vashishtha warns, infected people will find getting rid of the virus challenging, leading to persistent inflammation and higher incidence of long Covid-19.

Hence proving yet again that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is supremely smart in surviving and thriving. 

Amid this recent surge, Indian Medical Association (IMA) has said that the reasons behind the recent Covid surge in India could be the relaxation of Covid-19 appropriate behaviour, low testing rate and the emergence of a new Covid variant.

Covid-19 And The Domino Effect On The Already Suffering Economy

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on economies around the world, including those that were already struggling prior to the outbreak. 

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a range of impacts on the economy, including supply chain disruptions, business closures, and job losses. In countries with already struggling economies, these impacts have been particularly severe.

For example, in countries with high levels of poverty and inequality, the pandemic has further exacerbated these issues. The closure of businesses and loss of jobs has led to increased financial hardship for many individuals and families.

In addition, the pandemic has led to a reduction in economic activity in many sectors, including tourism and hospitality. In countries where these industries are major contributors to the economy, the decline in economic activity has had a significant impact on overall economic growth.

Furthermore, the pandemic has also led to a decrease in foreign investment and trade, as many countries have implemented travel restrictions and reduced trade in order to control the spread of the virus. This has further hampered economic growth and development in countries that were already struggling.

Conclusion: Coming to the present, where businesses on a global level are putting up a tough fight against macroeconomic-induced challenges – falling revenues and profits, and a major part of the population has already witnessed layoffs, things could get grimmer and worse than what the present is if Covid-19 were to make a comeback.