Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Noose Tightens Escalating Global Trade Tensions. Which Countries To Be Affected Most Cited As The “Dirty 15”?

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The world is bracing for impact as US President Donald Trump gears up to announce new reciprocal tariffs today, April 2 – dubbed “Liberation Day” by his administration.

Once revealed, these tariffs will take effect immediately. Tensions are running high, especially after the White House took a jab at India for slapping a 100% tariff on American agricultural products, pointing out similar trade barriers in the EU, Japan, and Canada. Naturally, all eyes are now on India, waiting to see how it will be affected.

According to The Washington Post, Trump and his team have drawn up a plan to impose a 20% tax on most goods imported into the US. The report also suggests that the revenue from these tariffs might be used to offer tax refunds or dividends to American citizens – potentially turning a controversial trade move into a populist win.

Trump’s Liberation Day Tariff Announcement – Time, Venue & Impact

Trump will unveil the tariffs in the iconic Rose Garden of the White House; while the exact schedule has not been made public, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has confirmed the announcement will take place at 4 PM Washington time (1:30 AM IST on April 3).

So, what happens next?

US companies that rely on imports will now have to absorb these new taxes. If the White House decides to implement them immediately, businesses will be left scrambling.

According to a report, higher tariffs mean companies will have to cut costs (by switching suppliers, negotiating price-sharing with partners, or simply raising prices for American consumers). The big gamble is that if prices climb too high, demand could drop, dragging the US and global economy closer to a recession.

In the lead-up to today’s announcement, three key reports have been released by the US Trade Representative, the Department of Commerce, and the Treasury Department.

These reports hint at the direction Trump’s trade policy could take.

The first wave of tariffs is expected to target countries with large trade surpluses with the US, especially those with existing trade deals.

The administration is weighing three main tariff strategies –

–Universal Tariff – A flat 20% tariff on all imports.

–Reciprocal Tariffs – Country-specific tariffs based on trade deficits.

–Targeted Tariffs – Focused taxes on certain nations or industries.

For now, it’s unclear whether these measures are a short-term shock tactic or part of a long-term trade war strategy. Either way, global markets are on edge, and businesses are scrambling to prepare.

Trump Set to Escalate Global Trade Tensions And The “Dirty 15”

Trump is about to shake up global trade like never before. On Wednesday, he’s expected to announce a sweeping new set of reciprocal tariffs, throwing decades of trade norms out the window. If we thought the tariff wars were already messy, things are about to get even hotter.

What we do know is that the scale of these tariffs is big – bigger than what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had initially hinted at.

Trump is more likely to target individual countries with slightly lower but still hefty tariffs. And it won’t just be a few nations, at least 15 countries could be hit, maybe even more.

Kevin Hassett, head of Trump’s National Economic Council, revealed in an interview that 10 to 15 countries account for America’s $1 trillion trade deficit and while he didn’t name names, Commerce Department data shows that in 2024, the US had the biggest trade deficits with:

-China (No surprises here)
-European Union
-Mexico
-Vietnam
-Ireland, Germany, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Canada
-India, Thailand, Italy, Switzerland, Malaysia, Indonesia, France, Austria, Sweden

How Will These Tariffs Work?

According to Scott Bessent, these new tariffs will function as a “cap” – a starting point that countries can negotiate down if they play by Trump’s rules. But will they? That’s the big question.

Meanwhile, Ryan Majerus, a former Commerce Department official, suggests that a universal tariff would be easier to implement and rake in more cash, but country-specific tariffs would hit unfair trade practices more directly. Either way, industries worldwide are bracing for impact.

Stacking Tariffs, It’s Getting Expensive

Since taking office just 10 weeks ago, Trump has already thrown down:

20% tariffs on all Chinese imports over fentanyl
Restored 25% duties on steel and aluminum, now covering $150 billion worth of products
A temporary exemption for Canadian and Mexican goods from fentanyl-related tariffs, which expires today

And the impact is that, Tariffs are stacking!

That means a Mexican-built car that used to face a 2.5% tariff now gets slapped with:

25% fentanyl-related auto tariff
Existing auto sector tariff
Any new reciprocal tariff from today’s announcement

Potentially pushing tariffs to over 50%, which is going to hurt businesses, raise consumer prices, and fuel inflation.

Reciprocal tariff, Donald Trump, Global Trade

The Market Is Already Freaking Out

With all this uncertainty, investors are in panic mode. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta reports that corporate financial heads expect tariffs to raise costs, slow hiring, and drag down economic growth.

Wall Street, it’s already taking a hit. Since mid-February, US stocks have lost nearly $5 trillion in value. Investors dumped stocks again on Tuesday, anxiously waiting for Trump’s bombshell announcement.

Canada and Mexico, Ready to Fight Back

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum have already joined forces, discussing Canada’s strategy to fight what it calls “unjustified trade actions.” Both leaders stressed the need to protect North American competitiveness while maintaining their sovereignty, a clear message that they won’t back down without a fight.

In Canada, a “Buy Canadian” movement is gaining traction, making it tougher for American products to land on store shelves. And in Mexico, industries are already preparing countermeasures, warning that any aggressive U.S. tariffs could disrupt long-standing cross-border supply chains.

Trump’s View, Fixing ‘Decades of Damage’

Trump insists that free trade agreements have left American workers at a disadvantage, fueling a $3 trillion import market that, in his view, has been one-sided. The biggest red flag – a $1.2 trillion trade deficit in goods, which Trump sees as proof that past deals have failed.

His solution?

Tariffs, tariffs, and more tariffs. But economists argue that this approach could backfire massively – not just in the U.S. but globally. A 20% across-the-board tariff could cost the average American household at least $3,400 per year, according to a Yale University Budget Lab study.

India Braces for Impact

Meanwhile, India is running multiple scenarios to gauge the potential fallout from Trump’s tariffs. Officials at the commerce and industry ministry are assessing different tariff differentials and past U.S. trade actions, aiming to protect domestic industries while keeping exports competitive.

One key concern – Non-tariff barriers.

Indian businesses have already flagged U.S. regulatory hurdles that restrict their exports. With Trump’s latest move, these challenges could worsen.

Will India Lower Tariffs? Trump Seems to Think So

Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump hinted that India is preparing to drop its tariffs “very substantially.” While no official confirmation has come from New Delhi, Trump claims that his tough stance is forcing countries to rethink their protectionist policies.

“A lot of countries are going to be dropping their tariffs,” Trump said, pointing to the European Union’s decision to lower car tariffs to 2.5% as an example. Whether India follows suit remains to be seen.

Non-Tariff Barriers, The Hidden Roadblocks

While tariffs grab headlines, non-tariff barriers – the sneaky trade restrictions that don’t involve direct taxes, are just as frustrating for exporters and the Indian government is taking note.

A new portal is set to launch in the next two months, allowing exporters to report trade barriers they face in the U.S. Wild-caught shrimp exports from India, for example, have been blocked because Indian trawlers don’t use Turtle Excluder Devices—an issue that has nothing to do with tariffs but still keeps Indian products out of U.S. markets.

American corporations, too, impose their own private standards that make it harder for Indian businesses to sell their goods. The new initiative aims to identify and challenge these hurdles, giving exporters a stronger voice.

What are reciprocal tariffs that Donald Trump mentioned in Congress address?

Nations Scrambling to Keep the U.S. Happy

As the U.S. prepares to slam its trading partners with new tariffs, some countries are already bending over backward to avoid the worst of it.

India: Sent top trade officials on multiple U.S. trips to sort out disputes. Rumors suggest India is considering slashing tariffs on $23 billion worth of American imports—a clear effort to ease tensions.

Vietnam: Signed a $4 billion energy and minerals deal with U.S. firms. Officials in Hanoi say the move is “highly meaningful” for both trade balance and job creation.

South Korea: Dispatched emergency negotiators to Washington, hoping to work out a deal before the tariffs bite.

Taiwan: With its $26.1 billion trade surplus with the U.S. growing, Taiwan is now mulling over increased energy imports and lower tariffs to maintain good relations.

The White House, ‘Time for Reciprocity’

Coming back to India, if there was any doubt that Trump’s tariff war was about leveling the playing field, the White House just made it crystal clear. India’s 100% tariff on American agricultural products has particularly irked Washington, with officials calling it “virtually impossible” for U.S. goods to compete.

White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt didn’t mince words:

“Unfortunately, these countries have been ripping off our nation for far too long, and they’ve made their disdain for the American workers quite clear.”

She pointed out that –