The Aftermath of Article 370 Abrogation: Reasi Attack Underscores Fragile Stability in J&K. Why Does Kashmir Need More Than Just Military Might?

The Reasi Attack and the Unintended Consequences of Abrogation. Addressing the Political and Social Challenges in Jammu and Kashmir.

The removal of Article 370 has unbalanced the local politics and a fragile social balance that is crucial to sustaining the region’s stability.

On August 5, 2019, the Bharatiya Janata Party had unilaterally at the Centre had abrogated Article 370 which granted special status to the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir as well as its statehood. As a Union territory, for the first time, Jammu and Kashmir was placed directly under the control of New Delhi. “More terrorists are dying now and fewer civilians are being killed. Even with the minority killing figures, the number for these three years stands at its lowest,” Amit Shah said at the press conference. The minister was saying exactly what the Jammu and Kashmir Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha had stated in the past.

Sinha reacting to the controversial abrogation of the Article 370 of the constitution termed it as the ‘gift of a new dawn of development and prosperity’ announced by PM Narendra Modi. While addressing a public meeting at Reasi district of Jammu, he called shutdowns and stone-pelting ‘things of history’ and complimented the Army, Central Armed Police Forces and Jammu and Kashmir Police. “They set an example against militancy. ”

Current Security Challenges in the Region

But, a few days back, Army personnel patrolled during a search operation in Reasi on June 10. AFP Half an hour before Narendra Modi was sworn in as prime minister in New Delhi on the evening of June 9, terrorists fired upon a bus carrying Uttar Pradesh and Delhi pilgrims which rolled into a gorge. Almost 9 people died and 43 others were injured in the incident.

The terror attack has created immense anger – in fact, photos of the gruesome and brutal victims were circulating in the social media platform. The Reasi attack yet again served as a reminder that ensuring security in Jammu and Kashmir cannot simply be an act of armed forces alone; it must be deeply rooted in the politics of the region and a very fragile social balance.

After the abrogation of article 370 on August 5, 2019 the militants aim to continue the targeted killings in the valley besides targeting losses to the security forces in the mountainous districts south of Pir Panjal range bisecting Kashmir valley and Jammu. Another economic times report highlights that it has been one year since the revocation of article 370.

Changes in Governance After Article 370

The vice-president of National Conference, Omar Abdullah said all those things told by the BJP-Central government for the scrapping of article 370 were proved to be false as the militancy, separatism, destruction, and injustices are still prevailing in Jammu and Kashmir. 

The former chief minister asserted that militancy reached even those places, including summer capital Srinagar, that were claimed to have been cleared of the militancy during his PDP- BJP regime from 2009 to 2015 as youth disillusioned by the establishment continued to take up arms.

Speaking at a public meeting at Doda bus stand Abdullah said that the   assertions of the Central government regarding eradication of militancy and separatism were proved baseless and  so also the comments regarding article 370 acted as a hurdle for outside investment and in the comprehensive progress of Jammu and Kashmir.

He stated, “The government’s justifications for abrogating Article 370 in J&K have all been disproven. In reality, since the developments of August 2019, J&K has been plagued by destruction, helplessness, unemployment, poverty, and injustice.” He said they are projecting that everyone in Jammu and Kashmir is happy and there is ‘mauja hi mauja’ (all is well) everywhere but “we have not seen this as the hearts of the people are weeping”. 

“From Kupwara to Jawahar Tunnel, we see all the militancy-cleared pockets witnessing a revival in militancy. The militants have not come from outside but the disillusioned local youths are picking up the guns,” Omar said, adding three youths killed in a recent encounter in Rambagh locality of Srinagar picked up the gun after 2019. “And they (ruling dispensation) are making claims that nobody is joining militant ranks”.

“They (BJP) who are ruling in Delhi and enjoy backdoor power in J&K unleashed a propaganda against our party and used to claim that its address will not be seen anywhere. ” Omar said.

Asking the leaders to work for strengthening the party at the grassroots level, he said, “Time has gone to sit idle at our homes and watch television.”

In 2023, a total of 59 individuals including 24 security forces, 7 civilians and 28 terrorists were killed in Rajouri-Poonch. These attacks have continued across the belt this year. The militant strategy includes psychological warfare. Terrorists know that the body-worn cameras record the events and have recorded the attacks and posted on the social media accounts to support their reactions.

Ongoing Security Issues in J&K

Authorities say that there are about 25 militants currently operating in the area but that does not justify why heavy toll is being paid from time to time. One factor is that in 2020, India had pulled back troops deployed in the Rajouri-Poonch belt to the Line of Actual Control in the Ladakh region due to rising tensions between India and China. Nevertheless, other factors must be considered as well.

There are implications arising from the reduction of forces in the hilly areas of Jammu & Kashmir. Since the mid-1990s, road-opening patrols, which ensure the supply of routes to the security forces, have become an integral aspect of counter-terrorism. 

Regarding the geographical situation there has been some development since the terrain of this part comprises plains in Kashmir valley and the road network has been constructed unlike the Reasi-Rajouri-Poonch belt where the transportation is still in its developing stage. As a result, the task of formulating a sound counter-terrorism strategy will have to take into account a new set of challenges.

The Importance of Political and Social Stability

In the mid 1990s the challenge further increased for the security forces in the relatively religiously diverse hilly region. Some of the militants who could not speak Kashmiri had started setting up their camps there. This challenge was met by a plan that involved a measure with a political aspect.

In an environment of militancy, political leadership does understand what is going on and is in a position to situate information from the ground. However, in the current context where the macro dynamics of decision making gets decided in Delhi, there seems to be a conspicuous absence of micro management in terms of policy fine tuning and indeed implementation.

Geographically, Rajouri-Poonch is a part of that disputed territory and even Reasi, which is adjacent to Rajouri, is a virtual extension of Pakistan occupied Kashmir. The only demographic difference between the two areas is that a large number of Hindus and Sikhs, many of whom had crossed the Line of Control in 1947, are living in this area. Majority of them reside in Rajouri and Poonch towns although the rest of area is dominated by Muslims.

Reasi, on the other hand, is a district where Hindus form a majority of the population. The hilly Reasi district, home to the famous Vaishno Devi shrine located in the Trikuta hills, is a large district and shares its border with Kotranka area of Rajouri, which was a hotspot for operations between army and militants in the 90s. Civilians were also attacked.

Context of Article 370’s Abrogation

Since the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir has not had a legislative Assembly for the past five years, there has been no feedback loop of the political class to, in turn, sensitise the security apparatus.

Moreover, the ruling elite of India have not been ready to address the issue and analyse the situation. This may become possible if the elite abandons its interest to use Kashmir for electoral politics across India especially in the Hindi speaking belt. It is for independent, detailed and socialised professionals to be allowed into the process if the apex of decision-making process is to be reached and influenced at the right time.

Current Political and Social Climate in J&K

Another factor that has helped push this situation is the propaganda, both domestically and internationally, that has focused on what seems to have been gained by scrapping article 370. The fact is the abrogation of Article 370 had nothing to do with the security situations on the ground.

Indeed, after scrapping Section 370, several provocative statements have upset the social balance of the region to a certain extent. Among them was extending tribal status to the Pahari-speaking people, which comprises both the upper castes of Muslim and Hindus that speak the same language.

But worst of all, an impression was developed among the strongly-knitted Gujjar-Bakarwal community that the decision was counterproductive for them. The community inhabits the hilly regions of the former state, and have been effective in preventing terrorists from establishing camps. It was not wise to upset them.

All the above clearly shows that security is not for the military alone. The timing of the Reasi terror attack around Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s swearing in ceremony so as to gain maximum attention internationally, has reinforced this fact at a great cost.