The Food Crisis: Why the Russia-Ukraine war could leave a long-term impact on Africa’s food security?

The Food Crisis: What long-term effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Africa’s food supply?

There have been about 13,500 people from both Russia and Ukraine who have died because of the war going on for almost a month. This includes both civilians and soldiers. Negotiations between the two countries are going on, and the international community is still trying to get them to agree to the end of the war. The effects of the Russian declared special military operation in the country that was part of the Soviet Union are still affecting the world directly and indirectly.

There are a lot of essential effects, but one of the most important is that it affects the global food supply, which both countries are thought to be. This problem will involve a lot of countries, mainly those in Africa. As a result, this article will explain what could happen if wheat exports to these countries were cut back. It will also try to explain why many African countries might be worried.

BACKGROUND 

They are thought to be the top wheat exporters. As of 2019, the Observatory & Economic Complexity (OEC) data shows that Russia and Ukraine make up almost a quarter of all exports made in 2019. Russia makes up $8.14 billion, and Ukraine makes up 3.11 billion. It doesn’t matter which country is the biggest exporter: both countries make up about 12 per cent of the total calories exported to the rest of the world. 

Both countries have been very good at growing wheat because they have a lot of fertile lands. This land makes up about a third of all the ground grown for food in Europe. Thus, it is called the “food basket” of the world. Ukrainians tried to protect their people from a food crisis that looked like it was getting worse, and they banned wheat exports because of the conflict in the region. Since then, Russia has been selling wheat all over the world. Recently, Russia said they would stop grain of sale in some of the former Soviet states. 

On the other hand, African states could face a food crisis because 90% of them rely on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine. Egypt is the world’s top wheat importer, and Russia and Ukraine are the two countries that supply most of their wheat, accounting for nearly 85% of global wheat imports. 

What will happen because there isn’t enough wheat? Check out Kenya and Egypt.

The Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM) said that the cost of importing wheat into the country would go up by 33%, which would make the state pay nearly 460 times more per tonne than before. Using wheat flour to make food items like “Ugali,” a popular Kenyan meal because it is cheaper than other types of starch, is a big problem for many people in Kenya. It doesn’t matter that the country has a lot of wheat on hand from local farmers; farmers at the Cereal Growers Association say that wheat imports are still a big way to control its demand. As more people see a shortage, food prices could go up even more in the area 

Egyptians use wheat more than any other country in the world. The government wants to keep subsidizing bread and oil products used in the country, like bread and oil. Bread, the primary and most influential food in North Africa, is used by almost 70 million people. In April, the government was able to say that the harvests would last another nine months. To avoid a wheat crisis in the country, the government banned wheat from exporting to other countries, primarily Africa, to keep the country safe. Furthermore, the government decided to stop buying wheat because of the rising prices and low bids on the products caused by the war. This is why the government did this 

The governments are working on ways to avoid a bad situation, primarily through subsidies, but it’s still important to integrate African economies, especially those with a lot of food. This will keep the problem from getting worse, but it will also help the African economies grow and work together to be more dependent on each other. The African Union (AU), the East African Community (EAC), and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) are all places where these kinds of policies can be made. They can ensure that agricultural products like wheat and maize don’t have to pay a lot of money to get to other countries. 

There is also a role for humanitarian groups, and they can’t be forgotten. International groups like the Food Agricultural Organization (FAO) can help prevent food shortages from harmful effects. There is a good chance that the war won’t end soon, but the war results could last even longer, hurting millions of people around the world. 

How to understand the Russia-Ukraine Crisis, which was a massive mistake in Global Diplomacy. 

A lot of us thought it was very new. In 2014, the Russia-Ukraine crisis started. It’s not new, and it has been going on for a long time. For weeks, threats were made to everyone. On February 24, 2022, the world learned that war had begun. Diplomacy didn’t work, and all the international groups set up to keep the peace didn’t work. There was a war and killing. It has turned into a game of tweets and big statements, not taking steps to make peace. It used to be those economic sanctions from the United States and many other countries would have worked. Now, they don’t even work at all! 

They’d have to think again about keeping Europe safe if the U.S. and Europe couldn’t stop Russia from getting in. Nuclear weapons could be used in a fight, so everyone would have to think about that.” Keep European peace and keep Russia from going to war with each other will not be able to work together. People who read ForeignAffairs.com 

As of February 2015, France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine haven’t been able to stop the violence in Ukraine because of the Minsk Agreements, which were signed in 2014. The deal includes: 

In an interview with Jens Stoltenberg, the head of NATO, he said that the “brutal act of war” broke the peace in Europe and toppled Ukraine’s government, which the people had chosen. There were fears that heating bills and food prices would go up because of the conflict. Stocks fell, and oil prices went up because people thought this. Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy takes sick leave as an amnesty, but other moves don’t work to stop the protests in Kyiv, Ukraine. CBS News 

Protests took place in the capital city of Kyiv in November 2013 against Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision not to sign a deal with the EU. Police used violence against protesters, making them even angrier. He left Ukraine in February of that year. GCT also agrees with this. 

Russia took over Ukraine’s Crimean region in March of that year. Afterwards, they did this. This happened after people in Crimea decided to join the Russian Federation in a disputed referendum in their own country. In Crimea and parts of southeast Ukraine, Vladimir Putin said it was essential to protect the rights of Russian citizens and people who speak Russian. In two months, pro-Russian separatists in the east of Ukraine held a referendum to break away from Ukraine, making ethnic tensions even worse. Since 2014, many people have been killed in the Ukraine and Russian wars. 

 The main goal for President Putin was to protect people in Ukraine who had been bullied or killed, he said. Also, he said that his goal was to make Ukraine “demilitarised and de-Naziized.” The country of Ukraine is a strong democracy with a Jewish leader, and there has been no genocide there. In 2014, Viktor Yanukovych was ousted as president in Ukraine after months of protests against his rule. Vladimir Putin says that extremists have taken over Ukraine ever since then. 

BBC. People who work for the Kremlin have told many lies about Ukraine being taken over by fascists in 2014, and this is false. In a speech, Mr Putin said that he wants to put people who have done many bloody things against civilians in court. BBC. 

NATO said in April 2016 that it would send four battalions to Eastern Europe to keep Russia from threatening other parts of Europe, especially the Baltics. The battalions would rotate through Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland to keep Russia from threatening other parts of Europe. As part of the NATO alliance, these battalions were joined by two U.S. Army tank brigades sent to Poland in September 2017. Those steps haven’t worked, and we can see for ourselves. 

Russia has also launched several cyberattacks on Ukraine. These cyberattacks can be bad for the country’s economy, people’s data privacy, and their right to speak out about what they think. 

There would be a lot of bloodshed if there were a full-scale war in Ukraine, and Russians might be angry if there was a war. Long-term, it could bring NATO troops to the border with Russia, leaving Russia to fight Ukraine’s opposition for a long time. But, Putin’s cost-benefit analysis shows that he wants to change the European status quo, not keep it the way it is now. 

Then, it looks like Putin has an even bigger plan in mind for Ukraine. This is what he thinks: He thinks modern Ukraine was made by communist Russia and is now run by the West. Also, he has said that if Ukraine joined Nato, the alliance might try to get back Crimea if Ukraine did. With Ukraine, Russia isn’t the only country that wants to know more about that country, and that’s what it wants.

When Vladimir Putin met with NATO leaders, he asked them to remove their forces and military infrastructure from countries that joined after 1997. “Strike weapons” should also not be put on the borders of countries that joined after 1997, he asked them not to do Putin wants NATO not to expand into Ukraine, and he blames us. 

A new rule on Twitter prohibits dehumanising speech about age, disability, and disease. 

There are three parts of Europe: Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and the Baltic Sea, all in the middle. He thinks the West said in 1990 that Nato would not expand “one inch to the east,” but then did so even though they said they wouldn’t. He only talked about East Germany when he said he would, and it only spoke about reuniting Germany before the Soviet Union broke up. This promise was only about Germany. A few years later, Gorbachev said that “Nato expansion was never talked about” when he was in charge. News from the BBC. 

After the war in Ukraine, Europe will not be the same as it was before. The idea that the European Union or NATO can keep Europe safe when the United States takes over will be gone when the US takes over. In Europe, there won’t be any more security, so it will only have to protect the parts of both the EU and NATO that are most important to them. 

New sanctions were being prepared by countries worldwide, not just the United States and Europe. This was due to the things that Russia had done. As in Hungary, even friendly leaders tried to get away from Vladimir Putin. Some things need to be looked at, and there doesn’t seem to be a way that they could start world wars, either. Then, what should happen next? Everybody can come to the table and talk about how to make a solution that works for everyone. I think the world is more divided than it has been in a very long time now. 

During the last two years, there has been a lot of sicknesses. Most countries are still dealing with the shock and effects of the previous two years, and they are still trying to get over them. Whether or not a nation can be active on the global stage and deal with economic problems at home is a question that many people ask. If they make the right decisions, there will be a lot of money. In the long run, even though we don’t know it now, even though we don’t think about it now, the crisis will affect us all even if we don’t think about it now. Is what happening at this point going to change the world’s order?