RBI is compelled by depreciation to internationalize the rupee. On September 29, the rupee fell below 82 versus the US dollar for the first time. By October 10, the rupee had dropped to 82.75. Along with its Asian counterparts, the Japanese yen has been in a rapid decline in recent months. Several factors have led to currency volatility at a time when the globe is facing economic uncertainty.
The cost of crude oil and war
India’s import expenses have dramatically increased as a result of the rise and volatility in petroleum prices brought on by the conflict in Ukraine, which has increased demand for US dollars. There are not enough supplies available to satisfy the demand that has built up since the COVID-19 disaster. China’s industrial potential has been severely curtailed by the zero-COVID policy, leaving the world in need of more supply.
The COVID-19 disruption dealt a serious blow to global supply networks, disrupting connections on a regional and global scale. Numerous European nations have been severely impacted by the restrictions on Russian natural gas and petroleum. The main cause of the high inflation rates recorded by the world’s major countries has been supply-side restrictions.
Thus far, India has performed better than other western economies, including the US. India’s inflation rate, which is currently controllable at approximately 7%, generally speaking. The US and several European nations often record inflation rates of above 8%, which is far higher than what is typical in established economies. Fears of a recession are being exacerbated by the Federal Reserve’s ongoing hawkish posture. All of the money is being parked in safe havens like the US dollar as a buffer against possible hazards due to the escalating volatility. In September, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold securities on the Indian Stock Exchange.
The recent yuan decline has increased the attractiveness of Chinese imports, which has further decreased demand for the Indian rupee. Overall, the nation’s current account deficit (CAD) is growing as a result of the current economic circumstances. According to the most recent statistics provided by the RBI, the CAD climbed from 1.5% of GDP in the January-March quarter to 2.8% of GDP in the April-June quarter.
Since July, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the country’s central bank, has actively sold foreign exchange reserves (forex) to keep the rupee from reaching the 80-point psychological threshold. By September 23, India’s foreign exchange reserves had fallen to $537.5 billion, the lowest level since August 2020.
The mechanism for the System of International Trade Settlement in Indian Rupees
A foreign party must create a unique rupee Vostro account with an authorized dealer in India to use the new method. The approved dealer banks must first get permission from the RBI’s foreign currency department and provide details of the agreement before creating a specific rupee Vostro account. This will make it possible for the RBI to monitor all such trade transactions. The parties that choose to use this method will be able to settle in INR after receiving RBI authorization, which means they will be able to issue and receive bills in INR.
An Indian importer will need to pay the special rupee Vostro account of the foreign seller or supplier for the bills that were raised by the foreign exporter for the supply of goods or services that the Indian importer received or accessed. On the other hand, Indian exporters will be paid from the remaining balance of the matching foreign importer’s special rupee Vostro account. Market forces will set the exchange rate between the currencies of India and its trading partners.
No additional paperwork or reporting is required for transactions made via this mechanism; instead, they must adhere to the Incoterms and the Uniform Customs and Practice for Documentary Credits. Advance against the Export Permitted: Indian exporters are allowed to accept an advance from an international importer against their exports. The money held in the special rupee Vostro account will initially be used for the payment of such export payments, if any, before the receipt of any such advance money.
However, any advance is conditional on the approved dealer bank’s verification of the claim and compliance with the 2016 RBI Master Direction on Export of Goods and Services. can do Setting off: Subject to compliance with the requirements and criteria outlined in the RBI Master Direction on Export of Goods and Services, 2016, set off is permitted for the export receivables against the import payables for the same foreign buyer/supplier.
Trade transactions using bank guarantees are also allowed as long as the Foreign Exchange Management (Guarantees) Regulations, 2005, and the Master Circular on Guarantees and Co-acceptances are followed. Utilization of Surplus: In line with the Foreign Exchange Management Act and the rules enacted thereunder, a surplus that has accrued in a special rupee Vostro account may be used for legal capital and current account transactions. The excess can also be used to buy government bonds, treasury bills, and other securities.
A foreign entity engaging with an Indian exporter or importer that is a member of the FATF Public Statement on High Risk and Non-Cooperative Jurisdictions would not be eligible to use this method. The Indian economy will benefit from the RBI’s deliberate initiative to internationalize the INR, circumvent the SWIFT interbank system, and create an alternative global arrangement by lowering its dependence on US dollars and facilitating commerce with sanctioned nations. This would stop India from losing foreign exchange reserves and might eventually help the INR become a widely used currency. Additionally, the pressure on the exchange rate will lessen.
Given India’s significant current account trade imbalance, the advantages of the aforementioned measure could not be apparent for some time. Long-term, nonetheless, it will be advantageous. It is one of the additional steps that the government and RBI have chosen to manage the outflow of dollars from India, encourage foreign capital inflows, and stop further INR devaluation. If the Russian importer/exporter complies with this new procedure, Indian commerce with Russia may be able to skirt sanctions and avoid the SWIFT system, thus facilitating trade between the two countries.
India’s digital currency pilot launch
On October 7th, the RBI released a concept note on the proposed digital rupee. Enhancing cross-border transactions is one of its stated objectives. India is worried about China’s fast expanding CDBC (Central bank digital currency) initiative and fears it may fall behind if the digital Yuan gains wider acceptance as a global payment method. India thinks the process must begin in order for it to receive a fair share of any future foreign transactions conducted in rupees.
A gradual decline in the value of the rupee might help India’s exports. However, it is crucial to avoid sharp declines and maintain currency stability. Because it enables the parking of foreign passive money in Indian markets, inclusion in global bond indexes will benefit the rupee’s stability. The rupee’s acceptability and trustworthiness will grow as its frontiers are expanded. That is precisely the reason the national government is determined to internationalize the Rupee, even if doing so reduces the government’s fiscal headroom.
