India seeking greater voice for developing world at G20, but Ukraine war may overshadow talks

India seeking greater voice for developing world at G20, but Ukraine war may overshadow talks

The Group of 20 (G20) meeting, hosted by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, faces significant challenges in finding common ground and meaningful agreement among world leaders this year due to the global ramifications of Russia’s war on Ukraine. While Prime Minister Modi has pledged to prioritize the needs of developing nations in the “Global South,” many of these issues are intricately linked to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Nazia Hussain, an associate research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, noted that New Delhi aims to maintain the primary focus on addressing concerns of the Global South. However, discussions about the emerging issues resulting from the war, such as supply chain security, decoupling, energy security, and food supply, are expected to be part of the agenda. The emphasis, though, is expected to be on mitigating the fallout of these issues rather than delving into the geopolitical and security aspects of the war.

Even before the G20 summit began, challenges emerged. Russia and China, two significant players in the conflict, have opposed attempts to draft a final communique, objecting to the phrasing related to Ukraine. This standoff mirrors the same wording they accepted at the G20 summit in Bali a year ago, which condemned the war. These differences of opinion highlight the difficulties of achieving consensus on sensitive geopolitical matters at the G20 gathering.

The G20 summit faces challenges in reaching a consensus on a communique due to disagreements among key players. The European Union has expressed reservations about compromise language suggested by India, finding it insufficient for their approval. This disagreement raises the possibility of the G20 summit concluding without a communique that reflects the commitments of participating nations, which would be a first in the group’s history.

Notably, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the G20 summit via video last year, but Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi chose not to invite Ukraine to participate in this year’s event. However, the White House has emphasized President Joe Biden’s agenda of mitigating the economic and social impacts of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has also committed to keeping Ukraine in the discussions and expressed his disappointment to Zelenskyy that Ukraine won’t be included. Trudeau assured Zelenskyy that Canada would strongly advocate for Ukraine’s interests at the summit.

These developments illustrate the complex dynamics and differing priorities among G20 member nations, particularly regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and underscore the challenges of achieving consensus on sensitive issues at the summit.

The Group of Twenty (G20), founded in 1999 as a response to global economic challenges, has evolved over the years. Initially focused on economic issues, it has increasingly grappled with geopolitical tensions, which have introduced politics into its discussions and made effective decision-making more complex. According to Ian Lesser, Vice President of the German Marshall Fund and Director of its Brussels office, these tensions have complicated the G20’s ability to work effectively.

The G20 includes some of the world’s wealthiest countries, such as those in the Group of Seven (G7), which includes the U.S., Canada, Britain, Japan, Germany, and the European Union as a bloc, along with other major economies like Russia and China. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and China’s assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region have heightened diplomatic friction, causing some of the most powerful G20 countries to be at odds with each other.

The presence of China and Russia in the G20 discussions today is markedly different from a decade ago, with major global issues such as the Ukraine war, Indo-Pacific tensions, and climate policy taking center stage. These issues are not only at the forefront of the global agenda but are also highly polarizing and challenging to address.

It’s noteworthy that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping did not personally attend the G20 summit, instead sending lower-level officials. While the reasons for their absence were not explicitly stated, both leaders have been limiting their international travel, and both countries appear to be emphasizing their involvement in the BRICS group of nations, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. At the recent BRICS summit, these nations agreed to expand the group to include several other countries.

Despite strained relations between China and India due to ongoing border disputes, the decision to send Premier Li Qiang to the G20 instead of Xi does not necessarily indicate a significant deterioration in their relationship. Modi and Xi did discuss the border issue at the BRICS summit, and China’s Foreign Ministry characterized India-China relations as “generally stable.”

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s presidency of the G20 presents an opportunity to bridge gaps between wealthy nations and the Global South. India, with its historic ties to Moscow and strong relations with the U.S., aims to leverage its influence to address the developmental needs of developing nations while seeking to add the African Union as a bloc member.

Approximately half of the G20 member countries fall within the Global South, and Modi’s leadership aims to prioritize their concerns. In preparation for the G20 summit, Modi convened a virtual “Voice of the Global South” summit and established working groups to address critical issues for developing nations, including alternative fuels, resource efficiency, digital public infrastructure, and food security.

U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan expressed President Joe Biden’s support for adding the African Union as a permanent member of the G20. Biden’s agenda aligns with many of Modi’s priorities, such as reforming multilateral development banks, advocating for debt relief for low- and middle-income countries, and addressing climate and health concerns.

While the absence of Presidents Xi and Putin at the summit could make it more challenging to reach meaningful agreements, it also provides an opportunity for Modi to focus on India’s G20 priorities. While a year-long presidency may not resolve all the issues of the Global South, India’s leadership aims to initiate progress on key matters, which individual G20 countries can continue to advance.