When it comes to Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the intrigue never seems to end – while official records show just two phone calls between the two leaders this year – one on February 12 and another on March 18 – there’s mounting speculation that their conversations have been far more frequent. In fact, reports suggest that Trump and Putin were in touch even before Trump was elected.
Trump, who insists he wants to be remembered as a peacemaker, has repeatedly claimed he wants the war in Ukraine to end and has warned that it could spiral into a global conflict but is his push for peace truly about diplomacy, or is there something bigger at play?
The Washington Post’s veteran journalist Bob Woodward, in his 2024 book War, alleged that Trump had as many as seven direct conversations with Putin after leaving the White House in 2021.
Trump when asked about this last year, his response was classic Trump: “If I did, it’s a smart thing.” The Kremlin, of course, flatly denied the report.
So, what’s really going on? Could Trump’s backchannel diplomacy be playing right into Russia’s hands? Or is he genuinely trying to broker peace?
The answers seem a bit complicated.
Putin’s Ceasefire Play. Trump’s “Peace Deal” or Russia’s Strategic Checkmate?
Donald Trump insists he’s on a mission to stop what he calls the “death march” in Ukraine as soon as possible but in Vladimir Putin’s playbook, ceasefire negotiations are more than halting the war, they are a strategic goldmine.
Behind closed doors, U.S. and Russian officials are set to meet in Saudi Arabia to hash out the technicalities of a partial ceasefire. The primary focus is stopping attacks on energy facilities and commercial ships in the Black Sea. Ukraine, for its part, has signaled its willingness for a full-fledged truce. Putin, however, has a different agenda, one that comes with a long list of conditions before any real deal is inked.
For Russia, Trump’s eagerness to broker a deal is an opportunity to extract maximum benefits. This even as Russian missiles continue pounding Ukraine, Putin is playing the long game, balancing the ongoing war effort while dangling the prospect of better U.S.-Russia ties.
At a recent security conference in New Delhi, Russian foreign-policy insiders revealed that Moscow views the Ukraine negotiations and U.S.-Russia relations as two separate tracks. In other words, Putin is not planning to back down in Ukraine, but he is more than willing to entertain Trump’s push for peace if it means economic and geopolitical perks for Russia.
Vyacheslav Nikonov, a senior Russian lawmaker, put it bluntly – Trump and Putin are developing a “bilateral agenda” that’s “not connected to Ukraine.” In his view, better relations with America hold more weight than resolving the Ukraine crisis itself. The message is, Moscow wants something in return before giving an inch.
And what exactly does Russia want?
A whole menu of strategic wins –
—Economic relief, including easier access to spare parts for Boeing jets and loosened restrictions on Russian businesses.
—A rollback of NATO’s presence in Central and Eastern Europe.
—A permanent block on Ukraine’s NATO ambitions and limitations on its military.
—Some degree of Russian influence over Ukraine’s political arena.
In the short term, Moscow seems keen on convincing Trump that a thaw in U.S.-Russia relations would be beneficial for American businesses, too. Many Russian analysts argue that Trump, being a businessman at heart, might be more open to this reasoning.
Feodor Voitolovsky, a Kremlin-linked strategist, even suggested that a broader deal with the U.S. could include reopening Russian airspace to American airlines, a right revoked in 2022, alongside relaxed sanctions enforcement.
But here’s the catch – while Russia is making overtures toward Trump, there’s no indication that Putin will budge from his ultimate objectives in Ukraine. As one Russian diplomat put it, “The long-term perspective is more valuable than a tactical ceasefire.”
Still, Putin is leaving nothing to chance when it comes to keeping Trump engaged. In a recent meeting in Moscow, White House envoy Steve Witkoff received a “beautiful portrait of President Trump” commissioned by a Russian artist, a move that Witkoff later described as a “gracious moment.”
The Last Bit,
The big question now is whether Trump, who seems eager for quick wins, will try to leverage Moscow’s ambitions to secure a better deal for Ukraine or whether he will grow impatient with Putin’s slow-moving strategy.
Trump has never been one for drawn-out negotiations and if he senses that the process is dragging on without real results, he may simply walk away.
In the present, though, Putin seems to have Trump right where he wants him, dangling the prospect of peace while ensuring that, no matter what happens, Russia walks away with something in hand.
