Canada-US Worked Closely On Possible India Link To Hardeep Singh Nijjar Killing; India-Canada’s Budding Dispute Could Have Huge Impact On Multibillion-Dollar Trade Relations In FY23

Canada and the US Cooperate on Investigation into Hardeep Singh Nijjar’s Murder

Canada and the United States are said to have collaborated closely in their intelligence efforts regarding the potential involvement of Indian agents in the murder of Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia earlier this year, according to a senior Canadian government source.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently announced that domestic intelligence agencies were actively pursuing credible allegations linking New Delhi’s agents to the June shooting of Nijjar, a 45-year-old Sikh leader.

The source emphasized that the two nations (Canada and the United States) have been working in close partnership, including on the public disclosure of the investigation; however, the specifics remain sensitive, and the evidence in Canada’s possession will be shared “in due course.”

Trudeau has underlined the far-reaching international law implications of the case and called on the Indian government to treat the matter seriously and cooperate with Canada’s full investigation.

India swiftly dismissed Trudeau’s assertion as absurd and responded by expelling a Canadian diplomat in a tit-for-tat move following Canada’s expulsion of India’s top intelligence figure on Monday.

These recent developments have dealt a fresh blow to diplomatic ties that have been deteriorating for years, primarily due to New Delhi’s concerns over Sikh separatist activity in Canada.

Roland Paris, a professor of international affairs at the University of Ottawa and Trudeau’s former foreign policy adviser, anticipates that normal discussions between the two governments will face challenges during the resolution of this issue.

United States Backs Canada

The United States has expressed its support for Canada’s investigation and concerns over the allegations.

Likewise, a senior State Department official stressed the importance of a comprehensive and transparent investigation, urging the Indian government to cooperate fully.

Now, there is increasing pressure on Trudeau to present the evidence that the Canadian government has in its possession. At the same time, scepticism abounds, with some, including Canada’s Conservative opposition leader, Pierre Poilievre, calling for tangible proof before taking further action.

The unfolding situation has not only raised questions about the nature of Canada-India relations but also the potential repercussions on international diplomacy and cooperation in the coming months.

India Rejects Trudeau’s Accusations
New Delhi has vehemently denied the allegations made by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau regarding India’s involvement in the killing of Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar.

The Ministry of External Affairs issued a statement, branding Trudeau’s claims as “absurd and motivated,” emphasizing that accusations of India’s role in any violence in Canada are baseless.

Trudeau’s assertions, made in the House of Commons on September 18, insinuated possible Indian government involvement in Nijjar’s killing.

However, India’s Ministry of External Affairs reaffirmed the nation’s commitment to the rule of law, stating that Trudeau’s allegations are unsubstantiated. It further pointed out Canada’s inaction in addressing the strengthening Khalistani movement within its borders, which has long been a matter of concern for India.

The ministry stressed that such unverified accusations divert attention from the very real threat posed by Khalistani terrorists and extremists, who are harbored in Canada and continue to pose a threat to India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The Khalistan separatist movement has been a contentious issue between Canada, which hosts one of the world’s largest Sikh populations, and India.
New Delhi has consistently voiced concerns over Canada providing a safe haven for individuals associated with the Khalistan movement.

Similarly, Trudeau had conveyed his concerns about the incident to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his visit to India for the recent G20 Summit. Trudeau stressed that any foreign government’s involvement in the killing of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil was an unacceptable violation of sovereignty, vowing to press New Delhi for cooperation in the murder investigation.

The escalating tensions between Canada and India are not only straining their diplomatic ties but also raising questions about the broader implications for international relations.

Trade Between India and Canada

Bilateral trade between India and Canada has witnessed substantial growth in recent years, reaching $8.16 billion in the fiscal year 2022-23.

India’s exports to Canada, valued at $4.1 billion, consist of pharmaceuticals, gems and jewellery, textiles, and machinery. Conversely, Canada’s exports to India, totalling $4.06 billion, include pulses, timber, pulp and paper, and mining products.

In the first quarter of fiscal year 2023-24, India’s exports to Canada amounted to approximately $911 million, while imports from Canada were valued at $990 million. According to World Bank data, India also received nearly $859.83 million in personal remittances from Canada in the fiscal year 2022.

Potential for Growth
Industry projections suggest that the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between Canada and India has the potential to boost bilateral trade by up to $6.5 billion, leading to an estimated increase in GDP ranging from $3.8 billion to $5.9 billion for Canada by 2035.

Investment in India
Canada ranks as the 17th largest foreign investor in India, with total investments of approximately $3,306 million from April 2000 to March 2023, representing about 0.5% of India’s total foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows.

Notably, Canada’s investments in India primarily target services and infrastructure, accounting for 40.63% of the total FDI from Canada to India.

Canadian Companies in India
Over 600 Canadian companies have established a presence in India, while more than 1,000 companies actively pursue business opportunities in the Indian market; prominent examples include companies such as Bombardier and SNC Lavalin.

Canadian Pension Funds in India
The Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) has made significant investments in India, with recent filings indicating investments exceeding Rs 1 lakh crore.

CPPIB has infused funds into various Indian companies, including IT giants like Wipro and Infosys, leading banks such as ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank, and emerging businesses like Paytm, Zomato, Nykaa, and Delhivery.

Impact on Trade Relations
The ongoing dispute has already disrupted trade talks, resulting in their suspension, and Canada cancelled a major trade mission originally scheduled for October.

The pause in trade negotiations and the postponement of the trade mission are both attributed to concerns surrounding the murder of the Canadian national.

India has called on Canada to take action against anti-Indian elements, and longstanding dissatisfaction over Sikh separatist activities in Canada continues to strain the bilateral relationship.

The Last Bit, The India-Canada dispute, fueled by allegations and counter-allegations, raises questions about the future of their multibillion-dollar trade relationship.

As diplomatic tensions persist, both countries will have to carefully consider the potential consequences for their economies and investment opportunities; however, the pause in trade talks and the cancellation of trade missions spotlight the challenges of maintaining strong trade ties amid the rising geopolitical disagreements.