Minihan, a four-star general in America, asked his commanders in an internal memorandum published on social media to push their units to reach full operational war preparedness this year. He instructs everyone who reports to him to become more involved in their training and to examine their concerns.
The expert opinion.
According to commentators, a warning by an American air force general that a military conflict with mainland China might occur as early as 2025 indicates that the American military is preparing for fighting over Taiwan. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would likewise increase its deterrent capabilities. The newest warning came from Mike Minihan, the chief of the Air Mobility Command, who stated that a battle over Taiwan might occur as early as 2025.
The war view from the superpower America.
Xi’s team, cause, and possibility are all aligned for 2025, Minihan said, stressing that a presidential race on the self-ruled island next year will provide a pretext for Chinese President Xi Jinping to launch military strikes. The current US defensive system proposed budget, which allows for up to $10 billion in weapons deals to Taiwan, has been criticized by China for exaggerating China’s threat and interfering in its internal affairs.
It appears that the US military is utilizing the warnings to announce its stance clearer day by day: if mainland China plans to attack Taiwan, the Americans should respond with military involvement, said Zhu Feng, a Nanjing University professor of international affairs.
Such cautions may push American pilots to be more confrontational when dealing with their Chinese colleagues on the front lines, perhaps raising the likelihood of violence.
The unprecedented fear over a conflict over Taiwan [in 1971] was created by a lack of intercommunications and mutual understanding, Zhu said, blaming the continuing impasse on former US President Donald Trump‘s tactic of using Taiwan as a major negotiating chip in his hardline China policy.
Sino-US hostilities eased during former US President Richard Nixon’s visit to Beijing, with the two nations establishing diplomatic relations in 1979.
Minihan’s warning comes only months after Admiral Michael Gilday, commander of US naval operations, warned in October that Beijing may invade Taiwan by the end of 2022. The timeline was based on an earlier assessment by Philip Davidson, now a retired admiral who led the US Indo-Pacific Command at the time.
Earlier this year, Davidson stated that a fresh crisis in the Taiwan Strait might take place in 2027, adding that Beijing might try to merge Taiwan with mainland China “within the next six years”.
According to Chinese military specialists and Sino-US analysts, all signals point to Washington growing more determined to interfere on Taiwan’s side.
Former PLA instructor Song Zhongping acknowledged that the possibility of a confrontation between the Chinese and US forces had grown as both sides intensified combat readiness training, with antagonism also increasing.
The US generals want to play up Beijing’s ‘Taiwan reunification’ plan by focusing on using force to ask Congress for larger military budgets, Song said, adding that the American military needs a strong adversary like China.
The only option for the PLA to respond is to increase its combat capabilities, as the US would not allow the Chinese military to finish its modernization, which is one of its ways of restraint against a growing China.
According to Beijing-based naval analyst Li Jie, the PLA would concentrate on improving its air and sea capabilities, as well as boosting the ranges of its missiles.
The US military’s assessment is right; the Taiwan Strait is the most probable place to have military clashes since Washington has gone beyond Beijing’s bottom line to push Taiwan’s independence, which does not allow for compromise, Li added.
Only by strengthening its deterrent capabilities will the PLA be able to prevent American military action in the Taiwan problem. When US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits China next month, tensions over the island are anticipated to top the agenda. Both parties should endeavor to find a way out of the impasse over Taiwan, which might precipitate a big crisis in the area, Zhu added.
Why the American commander gave such a stern statement?
Xi was elected for a third term and established his war council in October 2022. Taiwan’s presidential elections in 2024 will provide Xi with a reason. The presidential elections in the United States will take place in 2024, providing Xi with a distracted America. For 2025, Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned.
The final verdict.
US President Joe Biden‘s administration has frequently expressed concern about China’s military buildup as well as what the US interprets as a more forceful Chinese strategy toward Taiwan. According to the administration’s national security policy, China was recognized as the exclusive American contender with the will and, progressively, the financial, diplomatic, military, and scientific power to reshape the world order.
edited and proofread by nikita sharma
