400 Paar Possible? A 6,100-Point Crash Is Not Enough! If NDA’s Final Tally Falls Below 300 Seats, Can The Sensex Might Fall Much Worse?

As the Lok Sabha election results began to come in today, the BJP’s thunderous slogan of ‘Abki baar 400 paar’ faded. Early indicators indicate that the NDA will struggle to reach 300 seats. The BJP is expected to survive but with a small majority. The BJP’s goal of 370 seats for itself and 400 for the NDA alliance of parties it leads seems shattered well before the results come in. The triumphalist phrase ‘400 paar’ echoed throughout India, and a majority of exit polls indicated that the NDA would reach the 400 threshold.

Many leaders of the opposition’s INDIA alliance expressed disappointment with the exit poll results and positioned themselves to tarnish the electoral process by questioning the EVMs. However, the early trend today indicated that Prime Minister Narendra Modi might return to power for the third time, but without the pomp and show of ‘400 paar’.

Disappointed with early counting patterns that indicated Dalal Street’s favoured Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led NDA alliance may win elections, but with a lower-than-expected seat total, the Sensex plunged almost 6,100 points today, the worst intraday drop in the previous four years. The Sensex and Nifty not only reversed all of their gains from Monday’s session, but exit poll enthusiasm that forecast 350+ seats for the NDA appeared unrealistic. The overall market value of all BSE-listed equities plummeted by approximately Rs 21.5 lakh crore in the late morning.

Expert Opinion in midst of NDA vs INDIA.

However, if NDA’s seat tally falls below 300, economists believe this will only be the start of a short-term market slump. “Following the exit poll results, the market had factored in roughly 350 seats for NDA, and if it goes below 300, it will be a huge disappointment for bulls,” said Kranthi Bathini of WealthMills Securities. Some analysts believe the market may be overreacting to early patterns.

“Due to physical counting under VVPAT, the procedure is slower this time. Deven Choksey, a Dalal Street seasoned investor, believes the market will return to stability and high-beta equities will be acquired. If the market falls further, high-flying PSU stocks and those labelled “Modi stocks” will likely be among the most impacted by the avalanche. The Nifty PSU Bank index was the hardest hit, falling more than 11%, with all firms in the index losing double digits. Other PSU stocks, including PFC, REC, and BEL, plummeted up to 20%.

Dalal Street’s fear gauge, the India VIX, jumped 40% to 29.79, its largest single-day increase in nine years. The 10-year bond yield increased by ten basis points to 7.04%, indicating a flight to safety. With a 2% drop in the pre-election week, investors had predicted 300-320 seats for the NDA, but exit polls raised the bar only to be disappointed on Tuesday morning.

However, elections may have little long-term influence as investors focus on fundamentals, growth prospects, and business profitability. In the worst-case scenario, if the slump continues and the NDA seat count goes below 300, it might be the first bad market for new investors drawn to equities following the Covid surge.

“New investors, particularly those who entered the market after COVID-19, may not have experienced market declines previously. Because market movements are cyclical, missteps during corrections can result in significant losses for inexperienced investors. As a result, rigorous research and excellent risk management are required before making any financial decisions. “Rush or speculative investments might have major financial consequences,” stated Vinnaayak Mehta, Founder of The Infinity Group.

Analysts believe that retail investors should avoid buying the drop in today’s market and instead wait for the froth to settle. Market veteran Sanjiv Bhasin says that he doesn’t think the time is too short. He advises going long on the high beta trade—Adanis and PSUs—but to be cautious there. He also suggests trying to construct the portfolio around stocks that are gaining momentum, such as HDFC twins, SBI Life, UltraTech, ABFRL, and Vodafone Idea.

To be fair, these are simply preliminary patterns, with fewer than half of the votes collected before 1:00 PM. These data demonstrated how the NDA struggled in large states like Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. Even though it was early, Dalal Street expressed deep concern over the BJP’s lack of a clear majority.

Overall, the BJP-led NDA led in around 297 seats, while the INDIA bloc led by more than 225 seats when ballots were tabulated in 542 constituencies on June 4. Vote counting for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections began at 8 a.m. Everyone is waiting to know whether the exit poll predictions are correct and if Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s NDA will win a third straight term.