How India’s appetite for oil could transform the Middle East

India’s fast-growing oil demand and good relations with Washington have made the new US strategy a key element in countering China’s rapidly growing influence in the Middle East.

A major report released last week by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) states that India will now account for the largest increase in energy demand by 2040 – ahead of China. Please. The US-Israel-Arab alliance has added weight to the credibility of the US initiative to portray India as an effective economic and energy-friendly alternative for oil and gas producers in the Middle East.

In particular, according to the IAA report, under the current national policy scenario, India’s energy consumption is expected to almost double as its gross domestic product expands to approximately ৮ 6.6 trillion by 2040 (equivalent to the size of other economies in the world). Economy in 20 years). The projection of the note, especially to hydrocarbon producers in the Middle East, is that India’s oil demand is expected to increase to at least 7.7 million barrels in 2000, from around 5 million bpd in 2019, while its demand for natural gas is expected to increase further from triple. 201 billion cubic meters. According to the IEA, given the potential export dollar for oil and gas producers in the Middle East, India’s net dependence on oil imports has increased by more than 90 percent by 2050, and its net gas import dependence from just 20 percent 10 years ago to about 61 percent by 2025. Increased in percentage.

This view is perfect for the new counter-China strategy in the United States, which began politically with the signing of the US-brokered Israel-UAE ‘normalization agreement’ in August 2020. A new corridor of cooperation from the United States (and Israel) through the UNE (and Kuwait, Bahrain, and in part Saudi Arabia) is being built as a regional deterrent to China’s growing influence, according to the announcement of the agreement. Following the UAE’s similar nationalization agreement with Israel after Bahrain, Washington has ample opportunity to hope that a similar agreement can be reached with other GCC states, including Saudi Arabia, formed in Kuwait (already firmly under US influence) (the Crown believes). Prince Mohammed bin Salman was in favor of the UAE-Israel agreement), Oman (involved in China’s entry into the folds), and Qatar (the South Pars / North Dome gas field is quietly cooperating with Iran). . The rest of the GCC states – Jordan and Egypt – have already signed similar agreements with Israel.

A key element of America’s strategy is to focus the Middle East’s hydrocarbon producers’ large purchases on the international oil and gas sector, and that’s where India comes into the equation. Much of China’s current turbo-drive expansion in the Middle East is based on the power sector. The first example suggests that the oil industry, especially large amounts of money, ships, equipment, technology, and personnel, is often disguised – confidential bank accounts, intelligence agencies, and military personnel. Those who can pass as high-level oil technicians or security personnel, that a ship can disappear with the flick of an AIS switch – and other industries that do not match the wishes of countries that behave silently. Consequently, the starting point for the formation of the US-Israel-Arab state alliance is to focus on the example of power being led by the same demands, and that is why the US-Israel declaration on August 13, 2020. The UAE agreement also states that the three countries have now agreed to co-operate in the fields of oil and gas and “related technologies” (which China and Russia know in Iran, Iraq and Syria, could mean absolutely nothing). This required a powerhouse in a country rich in the Middle East is based on the power sector. The first example suggests that the oil industry, especially large amounts of money, ships, equipment, technology, and personnel, is often disguised – confidential bank accounts, intelligence agencies, and military personnel. Those who can pass as high-level oil technicians or security personnel, that a ship can disappear with the flick of an AIS switch – and other industries that do not match the wishes of countries that behave silently. Consequently, the starting point for the formation of the US-Israel-Arab state alliance is to focus on the example of power being led by the same demands, and that is why the US-Israel declaration on August 13, 2020. The UAE agreement also states that the three countries have now agreed to co-operate in the fields of oil and gas and “related technologies” (which China and Russia know in Iran, Iraq and Syria, could mean absolutely nothing). This required a powerhouse in a country rich in limited oil and gas resources of its own, which would show huge economic growth in the coming years through an instant ballooning of oil and gas purchases from abroad: India refers to India.
A very fortunate additional reason for the US plan was the growing interest on the part of India in taking a more aggressive approach towards its neighbor. In this context, many major changes in the core relationship between the two countries may have been reflected in the relatively small number of casualties caused by the clashes between the Chinese on June 15, 2020 and several disputed areas in the disputed Galvan Valley in the Himalayas. It has identified a new ‘push back’ strategy from India against China’s policy of expanding its economic and military alliance from Asia through the Middle East and Southern Europe in line with the multi-tiered multi-generational ‘One Belt, One Road’. ‘(OBOR) project. Unless China dramatically shifts its OBOR policy – at the same time the US signals Iran’s lack of interest in pursuing its own larger activities in the Middle East by withdrawing from the ‘nuclear deal’ and withdrawing from most of Syria – India’s policy of trying to control China. Was stuck.

As a sign that the export dollar is expanding, any region could come to a Middle Eastern oil and gas state that will side with the United States against China’s growing influence, already India has begun to offer attractive benefits to selected companies from the signatory countries. Until this new order in the US Middle East, significantly still the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC). The new team, based in the United States, appears to be the ideal corporate proxy for advancing all sorts of broad policies and power projections up to the Chinese border by increasing cooperation with India. At the moment, AdNoc is pumping about 400 million bpd of crude oil – the UAE’s largest power producer and OPEC’s third-largest oil producer – but aims to increase that output by at least 1 million bpd by 2030, as well as gas output. With all of this moving forward and the final recognition of the United States for protecting India as a direct counterpart to China in Asia, Sultan Al-Jaber, CEO of ADNOC, says he looks forward to exploring partnerships with many more Indian giant hydrocarbon standards. Chain.

Adnock has already been given the unique status of the only foreign company authorized to hold and conserve India’s only foreign strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). Given the evolving scope of this relationship, the Indian government recently approved a proposal that would allow ADNOC to export oil from SPR if it has no demand, the first example being from Mangalore’s strategic storage facility (other large SPRs). The decision marks a major shift in India’s policy on managing this vital energy reserve, having previously completely banned all oil exports from SPR storage facilities. Another sign of this relationship between the US-sponsored UAE and India is the possibility of ADNOC being at the top of the list of foreign companies that would be considered buying enough partners for the high-profile privatization of majors? Indian Refiner, Bharat Petroleum. Russia’s state-owned corporate proxy, Rosneft, recently expressed interest in buying 53.29 per cent of the Indian government in the company in mid-2020 – following Rosneft CEO Igor Sekin’s visit to New Delhi in February – but the move is now set by India.

As far as the UAE is concerned, the agreements that are being made with Indian companies in the UAE are not only commercial – but also commercial – they are only appropriate in the broader geopolitical strategy. This was pointed out by al-Jabbar towards the end of 2020 when he said: “Today, Indian companies represent some of the key concessions and research partners in Abu Dhabi. [And] as we continue to work together, I see significant new opportunities for increased partnerships, especially Across our flow portfolio. He added: “We have launched ambitious plans for our chemical, petrochemicals, derivatives and industry-based expansion in Abu Dhabi and I look forward to exploring partnerships with more Indian companies in our hydrocarbon value chain.” Minister Dharmendra Pradhan agreed with the view as he said that India’s demand for refined products would increase dramatically, requiring a 40 per cent increase in refining capacity to 350 million tonnes a year or 7 million bpd by 2030.