India 3rd Most Vulnerable Country – Will Modi Still Say There Is No Climate Change?

Do you remember the summer season 2 years ago? Year 2022. It was called the Hottest Summer Ever in news media articles. It was so hot in India that it broke the 122-year-old record that year.

But then came the Summer of 2023. In 2023, the summer season was so scorching hot that scientists said it was the hottest summer in the last 2,000 years in Earth’s northern hemisphere.

But then we come to the year 2024. January 2024: Hottest January Ever Recorded. February 2024: Hottest February Ever Recorded. March 2024: Hottest March Ever Recorded. April 2024: Hottest Month Ever Recorded. The last 11 months on Earth have been record-breaking in terms of heat.

The scorching heat that you have to bear today is not normal. And you are not alone. Record-breaking heat waves were seen last month in South India and throughout Southeast Asia.

In the Philippines, the heat index had crossed 53°C. In Uttarakhand, there were forest fires. In the first week of May 2024, forest fires occurred in Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Jharkhand.

Heatwave warnings are being issued nationwide, even in places like Kerala, where there aren’t usually heat waves. And now temperatures have been soaring above 46°C in North India. Global warming and climate change are the main reasons for all this. But are they the only reasons? No.

Climate Change: A Global Phenomenon

First, we need to understand that such extreme weather events are seen in India, Southeast Asia, and every corner of the world. In South America, at least 83 people died after days of heavy rain in Southern Brazil, and more than a hundred are missing. Floods have displaced another 123,000 people. Entire cities were submerged.

In South Africa, we are witnessing a terrible drought, with many families unable to cater to their daily needs like food. This type of drought, unparalleled in the past several decades, is said to be the first occurrence since 1947. So, this is not a normal circumstance.

Many Southern African countries have requested $5.5 billion from the rest of the world to prevent starvation.

There is one weather event behind all this destruction, which is considered the most significant cause. El Niño. It is a natural cycle of the Earth’s Climate that happens every 5-7 years.

However, due to climate change, it is becoming more extreme year after year. The full name of this cycle is El Niño Southern Oscillation. In short, it is called ENSO. According to the World Health Organization, this is a significant cause of climate change on Earth.

Understanding El Niño

In the first place is the relationship between the Earth and the Sun, the Earth’s revolution around the Sun, which causes the seasons to change. Winter following summer and summer following winter.

El Niño emerges from the Pacific Ocean. The Pacific Ocean is the world’s largest and deepest ocean between Asia and the Americas.

Winds blow over the Pacific Ocean, flowing from east to West. These winds are called Trade Winds, and most of the time, they move from the Americas to the direction of Asia and Australia because of Earth’s rotation. Since Earth rotates from West to East, the Trade Winds flow in the opposite direction (due to a physics phenomenon called the Coriolis effect).

Due to this, usually, the water on the surface of the Pacific Ocean starts flowing towards the West. It means it starts flowing towards Australia. And when the water on the surface starts flowing in that direction, in the east, the water below the sea’s surface level starts rising to the surface.

That is, near South America, the water from the depths of the sea rises towards the surface. This is called Upwelling. The water that rises from the ocean’s depths is much colder comparatively and has more nutrients. Because of this, fish and marine life also benefit.

So, in this typical situation, the hot water goes to Australia, and the cold water comes to South America. When water is hot, it evaporates more quickly. And because of that evaporation, clouds are formed, and more rain falls near Australia.

When these trade winds are weak, they do not flow as strongly over the Pacific Ocean. The Upwelling is weak, almost non-existent. The hot water on the surface consistently remains hot.

The clouds that were supposed to bring rain to Australia can rain anywhere over the Pacific Ocean. So the Australian region becomes very dry.

This is the phenomenon of El Niño. Sometimes, it happens every four to seven years. But when El Niño happens, it lasts for 6 to 12 months. But during the El Niño, the weather patterns of the world change.

It causes higher temperatures and drier weather conditions in Australia and Southeast Asia. The risk of heat waves increases. The violent wildfires in Australia in 2020 were a result of El Niño, too.

The last El Niño event was in 2018-19, which lasted till January 2020.
Since then, today, from January 2023 till now, another El Niño is in effect. The exciting thing here is that El Niño has the opposite effect in South America as it does in Asia and Australia. That is, it rains more there. The risk of floods increases.

This is why today we see many devastating floods in Brazil.
Now, apart from this, there is an opposite phenomenon of El Niño, which is La Niña.

Understanding La Niña

El Niño means the boy, and La Niña means the girl in Spanish.

The La Niña effect is an extreme situation of the El Niño. The trade winds strongly start blowing towards the West. Because of this, colder water flows to South America, hotter water flows towards Australia, and it starts raining more in Australia due to La Niña.

La Niña’s events usually last longer. They can last for 1-4 years. After the El Niño of 2018-19, when La Niña came in 2020-21, it became so extreme that it caused flooding in Australia.

This graph depicts the El Niño and La Niña events over the last 30 years. The red peaks are the El Niño events, and the higher it is, the stronger the El Niño event is.

The strongest El Niño to date was seen in 2015-16 after that was the 1997-98 event, followed by the current 2023-24 event.

The latest La Niña was in 2020-21, which lasted up till January 2023. Before this, the strongest La Niña was in 1999-2000. As the graph of El Niño is going down again, scientists believe that La Niña can start by July-August.

Heat Index

How will this impact India? India’s monsoon can be better than average this year. Last year, in the rainy season of 2023, there wasn’t a lot of rain because of El Niño. El Niño is a big reason why the summers of 2023 and 2024 were sweltering.

Scientists believe that climate change caused by humans is making the El Niño effect more extreme. That is, floods caused by El Niño are becoming more dangerous. Heat waves are becoming more and more violent. This is why a heat wave warning has already been issued twice in Kerala. The first time was in 2016, and the second time was in 2024. Both times, during an El Niño event.

The Indian Meteorological Department has essential criteria for declaring a heat wave. They say that if the temperature in the plains is above 40°C, above 37°C in the coastal areas, and above 30°C in the mountains, apart from this, if for two consecutive days, the temperature is 4.5°C above normal, then a heat Wave will be declared.

If it is 6.4°C above normal for two consecutive days, a severe heat wave will be declared. But if the temperature crosses 45°C, a heat wave is declared without checking any other condition.

But, in itself, temperature is not a very useful metric. It is easier to tolerate 45°C in Delhi in May than 38°C in Mumbai. 38°C in Mumbai seems more unbearable compared to 45°C in Delhi. It is because of the humidity.

The more humidity there is in the air, the more difficult it is to tolerate higher temperatures.

Relative humidity means the maximum moisture content in the air at a particular temperature. 100% relative humidity means that air saturates at a specific temperature. It is holding as much moisture as it possibly can and can not hold anymore.

The hotter the air is, the more its capacity to retain moisture is. This means that if the relative humidity of cold and hot air is 100%, hot air will have more moisture.

And as the humidity increases, the more difficult it becomes for our body for the sweat on our body to evaporate.

Sweating is the number one way for our body to keep us cool. If it’s really hot and there’s high humidity, we will not be able to sweat, and our bodies will not be able to keep themselves cool. That can be lethal for us.

This is why it is important to consider both temperature and humidity. And one metric that considers both of these things together is the Heat Index. The heat index tells us how hot the weather outside will feel for us.

On your phone’s weather app, you would have noticed the “feel like” or “real feel” temperature, which is computed from the heat index.

If the temperature is 35°C and the relative humidity is 50%, then it will feel like 41°C. But if the relative humidity is at 75% at the same temperature, then it will feel like a dangerous 53°C. This comes under the Red category, which means extreme danger.

On this heat index, you have a high chance of getting a heat stroke or a sunstroke. This explains why the latest heat wave in the Philippines was so dangerous and deadly, as the heat index there had reached 53°C.

Hence, it is very important to pay attention to the Heat Index. Even for the heat index of 32°C to 41°C, extreme caution must be exercised.

The situation has worsened to the extent that in Delhi, the heat index is touching 50°C. Over the next few days, it can reach as high as 56°C.

Urban Heat Island Effect

Apart from this, there is another effect that increases the impact of heat waves on a local level. An effect whose solution is much easier than all other effects. The Urban Heat Island Effect.

In different areas of a city, some places are hotter, and some are colder. In places with more trees, like parks or any other place, the temperature is relatively more comfortable than in other areas. And the areas with only big concrete buildings, tall glass buildings, 8-lane highways, and asphalt-covered ground are way hotter.

These places are known as Urban Heat Islands. The glass and concrete in buildings and asphalt on roads all absorb heat. They absorb the sunlight.

When a city is covered with concrete, there is no proper ventilation or air circulation. So, what happens is that heat is absorbed throughout the day. The air does not circulate much, and at night, the absorbed heat is released into the air.

This effect was studied in Delhi, and it was found that the places where this urban heat island effect is present are Connaught Place, Sitaram Bazar, and Bhikaji Cama Place. These places were 3°C to 8°C hotter as compared to the places with more trees, such as the Hauz Khas District Park and Buddha Jayanti Park.

This is why having a web of roads in any city should not be an indicator of development. Cities should be designed so that the temperature outside is comfortable and there is enough greenery for people to walk to where they need to go. Cars should be used as little as possible. Cars also release heat, which increases the urban heat island effect.

Impact to India

India is the third most vulnerable country in the world to climate change. We have already been having irregular monsoons that harm the crops, floods in some parts, and drought-like conditions in other parts, and people are losing lives to this.

On the occasion of Teachers’ Day in 2014, while addressing hundreds of students and teachers, Narendra Modi said, “Climate has not changed. We have changed, our tolerance and habits have changed. If we change, then God has built the system in such a way that it can balance on its own.”

His words underplayed climate change happening in the country. Even though, over the past few years, he has been actively going to climate conferences and has pledged to make India net zero by 2070, the real on-ground work has been little.

At least 143 people have died, and another 41,000+ are suffering from heatwave ailments just this year. In India, 8-10% of households have air conditioners, a number which is expected to rise to 50% by 2037 as summer becomes intolerable year after year.

Air conditioners, albeit seeming like a promising solution in the short term, cause more harm than good to the environment in the long term. They are energy-intensive, meaning that a lot of electricity is required to keep ACs running – electricity primarily comes from thermal power plants.

This means that more coal is burned, more GHGs are released into the environment, and more heat is produced.

The government has to take concrete steps to mitigate climate change, and the action has to be taken fast. Otherwise, a lot of urban areas, especially in North India, such as Lucknow, Delhi, and Jaipur, would become inhabitable.