The Deadly Moscow Concert Hall Attack; What Is ISIL And Why Is It Targeting Russia?

Over 133 individuals lost their lives, with more than 100 others sustaining injuries, in a bold attack on concert attendees at Moscow’s Crocus City Hall just before a performance by a Soviet-era rock band last Friday.

Assailants donned camouflage uniforms as they unleashed gunfire and reportedly hurled explosive devices within the concert venue. The aftermath left the hall engulfed in flames, with its roof collapsing due to the severity of the attack.

On Saturday, Russia’s Interfax news agency revealed that authorities had detained eleven individuals, including four directly implicated in the armed assault, shedding light on the ongoing investigation into the tragic incident.

The ISIL’s Afghan branch

The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the attack in Khorasan Province (ISKP), ISIL’s Afghan branch; United States officials authenticated the claim.

Further examination of the group and their potential motives behind the Moscow attack reveals a significant entity known for its brutal tactics. The group derives its name from an ancient caliphate that once spanned regions of Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkmenistan.

Originating from eastern Afghanistan in late 2014, the group is composed of defectors from the Pakistani Taliban and local fighters who pledged allegiance to the late ISIL leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

Renowned for their radical and tough methodologies, the group has gained a fearsome reputation, particularly for their violent actions.

Military expert Murat Aslan, a former Turkish army colonel, stated the group’s ideological influence on their target selection, particularly viewing countries like Russia and the United States as adversaries due to their involvement in Syria.

Despite reported declines in membership since around 2018, the group’s fighters continue to pose a significant threat to the Taliban’s authority in Afghanistan, underscoring the ongoing complexities in the region.

Groups Previous Attacks

ISKP fighters took credit for the 2021 assaults outside Kabul airport, resulting in the deaths of at least 175 civilians, 13 US soldiers, and numerous injuries.

The ISIL affiliate was previously accused of a brutal attack on a maternity ward in Kabul in May 2020, claiming 24 lives, including women and infants. 

In November of that year, an attack on Kabul University attributed to the group resulted in the deaths of at least 22 teachers and students.

In September 2022, the group claimed responsibility for a fatal suicide bombing targeting the Russian embassy in Kabul.

Iran accused the group of two separate attacks on the Shah Cheragh shrine in southern Shiraz last year, resulting in the deaths of at least 14 individuals and injuring over 40.

The US reported intercepting communications indicating the group’s preparation for attacks before coordinated suicide bombings in Iran in January this year, resulting in the deaths of nearly 100 people in the southeastern Iranian city of Kerman. 

ISKP claimed responsibility for the Kerman attacks.

Why Is ISIL Attacking Russia?

Defense and security analysts suggest the group has directed its propaganda towards Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent years, citing alleged Muslim oppression by Russia.

Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington, stated that Russian foreign policy is a significant trigger for ISIL. 

This includes the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, actions in Chechnya, alliances with the Syrian and Iranian governments, and military campaigns against ISIS fighters in Syria and parts of Africa.

Amira Jadoon, assistant professor at Clemson University, noted that Russia’s engagement in combating ISIS and its affiliates, especially through military operations in Syria and efforts to establish connections with the Afghan Taliban, positions Russia as a key adversary for ISIS/ISIS-K.

Should the Moscow attack be conclusively linked to ISKP, Jadoon believes the group aims to gather support and advance its aspiration to become a globally influential terrorist organization by demonstrating its capability to launch attacks within Russian territory.

Jadoon added that ISKP has consistently shown its ambition to become a significant regional entity, and by targeting nations like Iran and Russia, ISKP is not only challenging regional powers but also asserting its political significance and operational reach on the global stage.

Kabir Taneja, a fellow at the Strategic Studies Programme of the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, India, stated that ISIL and its affiliates perceive Russia as a “crusading power against Muslims.”

According to Taneja, who authored “The ISIS Peril,” Russia has been a target for ISIS, including ISKP, since the beginning. 

He cited ISKP’s attack on the Russian embassy in Kabul in 2022 and noted increased efforts by Russian security agencies to suppress pro-ISIS networks within Russia and its surrounding regions, notably Central Asia and the Caucasus.

In early March, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) announced the thwarting of an ISIL plan to attack a Moscow synagogue.

Michael Kugelman commented on the motivation for ISIS-K to target Russia, emphasizing the rivalry between ISIS and the Taliban, with ISIS viewing Russia as supportive of the Taliban.

Taneja also highlighted Moscow’s close ties with Israel as conflicting with ISIL’s ideology, suggesting that while this ideological friction isn’t new, it has tactical implications.

Additionally, Taneja pointed out that despite setbacks in Syria and Iran, the armed group has regrouped and strengthened, particularly ISKP in Afghanistan and ISIS in Syria and Iraq. Their political, tactical, and strategic power may have diminished despite being ideologically influential.

Taneja emphasized the challenge this poses to the world, particularly amidst significant global geopolitical shifts, where counterterrorism efforts have taken a back seat.

How has ISIL reacted?

Following the attack on Moscow, ISKP’s social media platforms are reportedly “jubilant,” as noted by Abdul Basit, a senior associate fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore.

Basit stated that supporters are actively celebrating the attack, sharing and disseminating the responsibility claim issued by the ISIL-affiliated Amaq News Agency.

According to Basit, ISIL employs a tactic of intensifying propaganda efforts ahead of large-scale attacks, a strategy that has been evident in recent anti-Russian messaging. 

He further explained that such attacks bolster armed groups’ credibility, subsequently expanding their avenues for funding, recruitment, and propaganda.

Basit also warned of the potential for further attacks in Russia and beyond, highlighting the significant role played by ISIL recruits of Central Asian origin, particularly Tajiks, during the group’s territorial control in Syria. 

These individuals have now returned to Central Asia, and their capability to carry out attacks has become evident.

Previous Attacks In Russia

Russia, including Moscow and other cities, has experienced previous attacks.

In 2002, Chechen fighters seized over 900 hostages in Moscow’s Dubrovka theatre, demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops from Chechnya and an end to Russia’s military campaign in the region.

Russian special forces intervened to end the standoff, resulting in the deaths of 130 individuals, most due to suffocation from a gas used by security forces to render the Chechen fighters unconscious.

The deadliest attack in Russia occurred in 2004 during the Beslan school siege, perpetrated by members of a Chechen armed group advocating for Chechnya’s independence from Russia. The siege claimed the lives of 334 people, including 186 children.

The Last Bit, the recent attack on Moscow by ISIL’s Afghan branch, ISKP, spotlights the persistent threat posed by militant groups to Russia and the broader international community. 

ISIL’s targeting of Russia, fueled by ideological and geopolitical factors, is an indicator of the complex dynamics at play in the region.

Meanwhile, the celebration of such attacks on social media platforms reflects ISIL’s ongoing efforts to amplify its propaganda and bolster its global influence.

Moreover, the involvement of individuals of Central Asian origin, particularly Tajiks, in ISIL’s activities signifies a concerning trend, indicating the group’s ability to draw support and execute attacks beyond its traditional strongholds. 

Thus, this shows the need for vigorous counterterrorism measures not only in Russia but also across Central Asia and beyond.

Furthermore, Iran’s harbouring of militant groups, as evidenced by its alleged support to Hamas and the recent attacks in the region, has added further woes to the overall security of the region.