JN.1 Covid Variant Growing Fast In US, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, China And India; Are We Seeing A Comeback Of This Deadly Virus?
The emergence of the JN.1 Covid variant has become a focal point of global concern as it rapidly circulates across various countries. This variant, identified as a descendant of BA.2.86, has garnered attention due to its accelerated transmission and is currently recognized as the fastest-growing strain of the virus. With a notable presence in the United States, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, China, India and other nations, the JN.1 variant has prompted health authorities worldwide to closely monitor its impact on the ongoing dynamics of the COVID-19..
The coronavirus subvariant JN.1 is rapidly spreading in various countries, including the United States, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, China, and India.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that JN.1 is responsible for approximately 20% of new COVID-19 infections in the US, making it the fastest-growing strain; in the Northeast, it already dominates, causing about a third of new infections.
JN.1, descended from BA.2.86 or Pirola, garnered attention due to significant changes to its spike proteins, with over 30 mutations. Initial concerns revolved around the possibility of it evading vaccine protection, similar to the original Omicron variant in 2021.
While that scenario did not unfold, BA.2.86 lingered and slowly grew in some countries, including the US. However, studies suggested its limited ability to infect cells may have hindered its widespread transmission.
Enter JN.1, two generations removed from BA.2.86, with only one change to its spike protein compared to its predecessor. This single change appears to have made it a more robust and faster-spreading virus.
The CDC estimates that JN.1’s prevalence more than doubled in the US between late November and mid-December, potentially fueled by holiday travel and declining immunity.
Experts anticipate JN.1 becoming the dominant coronavirus variant worldwide in a matter of weeks. Although the World Health Organization labeled it a variant of interest due to its rapidly increasing spread, the additional public health risk remains low.
The spike mutation in JN.1 seems to aid the virus in evading immunity, with studies indicating a twofold decrease in antibodies’ ability to neutralize this subvariant. While not a significant drop, it raises concerns about a potential upcoming wave of infections.
Several European countries and regions, as well as Australia, Asia, and Canada, have experienced exponential growth of JN.1, leading to rising hospitalizations.
Waning immunity in the United States, coupled with a low uptake of the latest Covid-19 vaccine, contributes to its quick spread.
As of December 9, only about 18% of adults in the US had received the latest Covid-19 vaccine. The CDC urges doctors to intensify vaccination efforts, emphasizing that it is not too late to benefit from the shots.
Hospitalizations for Covid-19 have risen by 51% in the past four weeks, and the CDC warns that continued increases could strain hospital capacity, especially with rising rates of flu and RSV.
Encouragingly, a study from Columbia University’s Dr. David Ho’s lab found that the current Covid-19 vaccine, designed to enhance the body’s ability to combat XBB family variants, also provides good protection against BA.2.86 and its offshoots, including JN.1.
The CDC and WHO support the use of upgraded Covid-19 vaccines against various variants, emphasizing their broad protection.
Despite these findings, there is concern about decreasing booster uptake and the use of antivirals like Paxlovid.
Dr. Alex Greninger from the University of Washington expresses disappointment when vital tools like vaccines and drugs are underutilized, emphasizing the importance of maximizing their availability and effectiveness in combating the ongoing threat of Covid-19.
The Wrecking Havoc
Amid a surge in Covid-19 cases propelled by the highly transmissible JN.1 variant, several Asian countries, including China, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia, are reintroducing thermal scanners and advocating the use of face masks.
Over the past two weeks, these nations have witnessed an increase in Covid cases, coinciding with the holiday season.
Singapore
In Singapore, Covid cases have almost doubled compared to the final week of November, prompting the government to establish additional coronavirus treatment facilities and strongly recommend mask-wearing in crowded places.
The Health Ministry briefing revealed that Singapore recorded 56,043 cases in the week ending December 9, a 75% surge from the 32,035 infections in late November.
The JN.1 variant now constitutes approximately 60% of infections in the nation. The government is taking measures such as ensuring adequate manpower in public hospitals, deferring non-urgent elective surgeries to increase bed capacity, and providing free flu vaccines for those under the national healthcare scheme.
Indonesia
In Indonesia, Covid cases have risen by 13% compared to November, particularly in Jakarta, where an average of 200 cases per day is reported.
The majority of cases are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic, and hospitalizations remain under control.
The Health Ministry is urging residents to take booster doses and reinstall thermal scanners at key points and advises against travelling to areas experiencing a surge in cases.
Malaysia
Covid infections in Malaysia have nearly doubled within a week, reaching almost 13,000 cases by December 10.
Despite being a popular tourist destination ahead of Christmas and New Year, the government has ruled out a lockdown and is emphasizing community tracing through its TRIIS system.
The Health Minister encourages mask-wearing, and seniors or those with underlying health issues are advised to get a Covid booster dose.
China
China has detected approximately seven JN.1 Covid cases, categorized as mild and asymptomatic, with health authorities stating that the infections are at a low epidemic level.
Despite dealing with a pneumonia outbreak, especially affecting children, Chinese health authorities acknowledge the potential for the JN.1 variant to become dominant.
The Philippines
The Philippines has observed an increase in Covid and flu-like illnesses, recording 1,340 new cases in the first week of December.
Most symptoms are mild, with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr testing positive for Covid for the second time.
The government is advising precautions and monitoring of areas experiencing a surge in cases.
India
India is on high alert as the Union Ministry of Health urges states to maintain constant vigilance due to a spike in Covid-19 cases this winter, particularly in the southern region.
The emergence of the JN.1 Covid variant has heightened concerns, with the first case reported earlier this month in Kerala.
As of the latest health ministry update on Monday, India has recorded 260 new coronavirus infections, pushing the active cases to 1,828, primarily concentrated in Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Odisha.
The Union Health Ministry emphasizes control and management strategies in letters sent to states and Union Territories, highlighting the need to sustain efforts in the face of evolving epidemiological conditions and the circulation of other pathogens in the Indian weather.
Union Health Secretary Sudhansh Pant stresses the importance of maintaining momentum in dealing with public health challenges. States are urged to implement public health measures to reduce transmission risks and regularly monitor and report influenza-like illness and severe acute respiratory illness cases at the district level.
Additionally, states are encouraged to increase RT-PCR tests and send positive samples for genome sequencing to Indian SARS COV-2 Genomics Consortium laboratories for timely detection of any new variant.
The health ministry is conducting mock drills at public and private health facilities to assess preparedness. Following four deaths reported in Kerala over the weekend, Karnataka has advised individuals aged above 60 years, those with co-morbidities, and those displaying symptoms like cough, phlegm, and fever to wear face masks.
Health Minister Dinesh Gundu Rao emphasizes increased testing for symptomatic individuals, heightened surveillance in border districts, and assures the public of adequate preparations in terms of medical infrastructure and supplies in the event of an emergency.
Why China Might Experiencing an Increase in Covid-19 Cases This Winter
In the past month, China observed a modest resurgence of Covid-19 infections, reporting a total of 209 new severe cases and 24 deaths nationwide in October.
Experts are now expressing caution about the potential for a spike in cases during the upcoming winter season.
Respiratory disease experts in China, as reported by the state-run Global Times newspaper, are sounding the alarm about an anticipated rise in Covid-19 infections during the winter months. They are particularly urging the elderly and vulnerable populations to prioritize vaccination to mitigate the potential impact.
The recent upswing in Covid-19 cases in China has been linked to the XBB variants, JN.1 according to the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, reporting 209 new severe cases and 24 deaths in October.
China initially pursued a zero-Covid strategy, characterized by stringent containment measures that proved successful. However, in December 2022, the country abruptly abandoned this policy, resulting in waves of infections.
The majority of the population lacked prior exposure to the virus, rendering them susceptible. Vaccines, while effective, do not guarantee complete immunity, especially against fast-spreading variants like Omicron and XBB.
Consequently, a segment of the population in China may still lack immunity against various variants, contributing to a recent uptick in cases and deaths.
An additional factor contributing to the resurgence could be the efficacy of the two Chinese vaccines in use, Sinovac and Sinopharm. The number of administered booster shots remains unclear, and vaccines tend to lose effectiveness over time.
Without the reinforcement of boosters or the development of natural immunity, the population becomes more vulnerable to the virus.
The XBB variant, a recombination of Omicron sub-variants BA.2.10.1 and BA.2.75, has been identified as more immune-evading, surpassing other circulating Omicron variants.
While XBB exhibits a higher likelihood of causing reinfection or breakthrough infections, it does not necessarily translate to increased severity of disease, hospitalizations, or fatalities.
In India, for instance, a specific XBB variant, XBB.1.16, was detected in samples from states experiencing a surge in COVID-19 cases in March of this year.
