India’s shift to green power may cost 73,800 jobs at Coal India by 2050: GEM report

India’s shift to green power may cost 73,800 jobs at Coal India by 2050: GEM report

The US-based think tank Global Energy Monitor (GEM) research report, released on October 10, delves into the expected workforce changes in India’s coal industry as the country pledges to shift from fossil fuels to green energy sources.

According to the report, Coal India Limited (CIL), a major state-run miner and one of the largest employers among government undertakings, may need to eliminate as many as 73,800 jobs by the year 2050. This substantial reduction in the workforce is directly linked to India’s commitment to transitioning toward cleaner and more sustainable energy options.

The report also extends its analysis beyond India and highlights the global impact of the transition to green power. It predicts that worldwide, over a million jobs could be at risk of being cut by 2050 as countries worldwide make climate change pledges. China, with its colossal coal industry employing over 1.5 million people, is expected to be one of the hardest-hit nations, with an estimated 241,900 layoffs projected by mid-century.

In addressing the social and economic implications of this transition, the report references the concept of a “just transition,” as articulated by the International Labour Organisation (ILO). This term emphasizes the need for greening the economy in a manner that is equitable, inclusive, and provides decent work opportunities while ensuring that no one is left behind.

India, as the world’s second-largest coal producer, holds a significant role in this global shift. Despite having a workforce approximately half the size of China’s Shanxi province, India officially employs around 337,400 miners at its active mines, though some studies suggest that there are four ‘informal’ employees for each direct employee in the local mining sector.

In conclusion, the GEM report highlights the complex challenges and far-reaching consequences associated with the transition from coal and fossil fuels to green energy sources in India and globally. It underscores the importance of planning and implementing a just transition to ensure that affected workers are not left without opportunities in the changing energy landscape.

The report from the Global Energy Monitor (GEM) paints a concerning picture of the future of employment in the global coal mining industry. According to the findings, approximately 414,200 workers are currently employed in mines that may reach the end of their operations before 2035. This translates to nearly 100 mining sector workers potentially losing their jobs each day, underlining the imminent employment challenges faced by the industry. GEM’s study is extensive in scope, covering data from 4,300 active and proposed coal mine projects worldwide, encompassing a workforce of 2.7 million individuals. This comprehensive approach allows for a thorough assessment of the global mining industry’s workforce and its future prospects.

Furthermore, the report highlights a significant policy shift that emerged from the United Nations climate talks in Glasgow in 2021. During these talks, participants reached an agreement to phase down coal power and eliminate “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies. This marked a substantial departure from previous climate negotiations, where coal, oil, and gas were not explicitly addressed as the primary drivers of global warming.

Looking ahead, the report predicts an even bleaker employment scenario. By 2050, it is estimated that nearly 990,200 coal mine jobs may cease to exist due to foreseeable closures. This projection implies that over one-third (37 percent) of the current workforce in the coal mining industry could face layoffs, underscoring the urgency of addressing employment challenges in the sector.

In light of these findings, the report emphasizes the pressing need for a “just transition” for affected workers in the coal industry. This concept, advocated by the International Labour Organization (ILO), stresses the importance of managing the transition away from fossil fuels in a manner that is equitable, inclusive, and supportive of workers’ well-being. It recognizes that as the world shifts towards cleaner energy sources to combat climate change, strategies must be developed to ensure that workers are not left behind, and opportunities for decent work are created.

Dorothy Mei, the Project Manager for the Global Coal Mine Tracker, highlights the inevitability of coal mine closures due to the global shift away from coal as an energy source. However, she emphasizes that the economic hardship and social challenges faced by workers can be mitigated through viable transition planning. Mei cites the example of Spain, where the country regularly reviews the ongoing impacts of decarbonization and successfully implements transition plans. She encourages governments worldwide to draw inspiration from such successful strategies in planning their own just energy transition approaches.

According to estimates by the Global Energy Monitor (GEM), if global plans to phase down coal to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius were implemented, only 250,000 miners, which is less than 10 percent of the current workforce, would be required worldwide. This underscores the dramatic transformation occurring in the coal industry.

Runa Sarkar, a professor at the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, highlights the challenges faced by coal mining regions, with West Bengal in India being particularly affected by mine closures. She notes that India has not yet committed to a peaking year for coal production and currently witnesses an increase in coal production, with discussions about reopening some closed mines to meet current demand.

The report underscores the significant role of coal in global electricity generation, including in India, where it remains the largest single source of electricity. However, it also highlights that coal is responsible for a disproportionately high share of power sector CO2 emissions, contributing to the urgent need for transition away from coal for environmental reasons.

Sarkar acknowledges the natural progression towards automation and increased efficiency in production, which often leads to job losses. She points out that the government issued new guidelines on mine closure in October 2022, recognizing the ecological and socioeconomic complexities associated with this process. This suggests that there is some recognition of the need for responsible and sustainable mine closure in the context of shifting energy landscapes.

In summary, these insights from experts and the GEM report emphasize the challenges and opportunities presented by the transition away from coal in the global energy sector. They underscore the importance of proactive planning, just transition strategies, and the need to address the economic and social impacts on affected workers and communities as the world moves towards cleaner energy sources.

Runa Sarkar’s observations highlight a critical aspect of the transition away from coal: the geographical disparities in energy resources. Areas rich in coal may not necessarily be blessed with abundant sunlight or wind, which underscores the potential for widening regional imbalances as coal mines close down. This aspect of the transition emphasizes the need for a comprehensive and inclusive approach that takes into account the unique challenges faced by different regions.

To address these challenges and ensure a balanced, sustainable, and just energy transition, Sarkar calls for a broader and more bottom-up discussion. Such discussions should involve stakeholders at various levels, including local communities, regional authorities, and the government. It’s crucial to consider the socioeconomic implications of mine closures and the development of alternative industries and employment opportunities in affected regions.

The Paris Agreement, a landmark international treaty on climate change, plays a central role in guiding global efforts to combat climate change. It sets ambitious goals to limit the increase in the global average temperature and encourages countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change. India, like other nations, has ratified the Paris Agreement and has updated its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to align with its climate goals.

India’s updated NDC targets include reducing the emission intensity of its GDP by 45 percent by 2030, compared to 2005 levels, and achieving about 50 percent cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy sources by 2030. These commitments reflect India’s determination to transition to a more sustainable and cleaner energy future.

In summary, Sarkar’s insights highlight the complexities of regional disparities in energy resources and the need for a holistic approach to energy transition planning. The Paris Agreement provides the framework for global climate action, and India’s updated NDCs demonstrate its commitment to reducing emissions and embracing renewable energy sources as part of its sustainable development strategy.