COVID-19: 3.7 crore people infected in a day in ‘world’s largest COVID-19 outbreak in China’

COVID-19: According to the minutes of a private meeting of all China’s National Health Commission held on Wednesday, and as many as 248 million people, or nearly 18% of the population, may have contracted the main virus in the first 20 days of December.

According to Bloomberg, China may have reported 37 million Covid cases also in a single day this week. The estimates were provided by the government’s top health authority. According to reports, the outbreak in China is by far the largest in history.

According to the minutes of a private meeting of all China’s National Health Commission held on Wednesday, and as many as 248 million people, or nearly 18% of the population, may have also contracted the virus in the first 20 days of December. Those involved in the discussions have confirmed the development. If these figures are correct, the infection rate would exceed the previous daily record of approximately 4 million set in January 2022.

According to reports, the daily total for December 20 is expected to be 37 million. It’s worth noting that only 3,049 infections were officially reported by Chinese authorities for the day.

There is a significant difference in the Covid-19 tally.

In the midst of ominous social media posts and videos, a previous report asserted in its analysis that China is likely also experiencing 1 million Covid infections and 5,000 virus deaths every day. According to many experts, the South Asian country is dealing with what is expected to be the world’s largest outbreak.

China’s future, according to the company, will be worse. According to the London-based research firm Airfinity Ltd., the current wave could see the daily case rate rise to 3.7 million in January. For dozens of infectious diseases, including COVID-19, Airfinity Ltd. combines proprietary surveillance tools and forecast models with expert analysis. The group predicted that a second wave of infections would follow, bringing the daily peak to 4.2 million in March.

The impact of China abruptly abandoning the zero-Covid policy, according to the Airfinity Ltd. report, far outweighs the government’s estimate.

Official figures downplay the issue.

China recorded 2,966 new cases on Wednesday, according to official statistics, and fewer than 10 Covid fatalities have occurred since the beginning of December. Overcrowding in hospitals and funeral homes, on the other hand, paints a contradictory picture.

China has also altered how it reports virus data. The country has ceased attempting to include every infection in the daily tally and has closed a vast network of mass-testing booths. Residents now rely on rapid tests because the government has no clear guidelines for reporting illnesses. The nation’s health regulator has also changed the definition of a Covid death.

Changes in methodology suggest that numbers are being understated: firm

According to Louise Blair, Airfinity’s head of vaccines and epidemiology, the official data “is unlikely to be a also true reflection of the outbreak being experienced across the country” as a result of these changes. “This change could reduce the magnitude of deaths observed in China,” he says.

Why is the number of COVID-19 cases in China suddenly increasing?

The highly contagious omicron variants began affecting the population with low levels of natural immunity as soon as Beijing lifted its Covid Zero restrictions.

The agency estimates that more than half of the people in Beijing and Sichuan province in southwest China are infected.

Given that the country’s previously extensive network of PCR testing booths was closed earlier this month, it’s unclear how the main Chinese health regulator arrived at its estimate. Since home testing with results that were not centralizedly collected replaced difficult-to-obtain laboratory tests during the pandemic, precise infection rates in other countries have been difficult to establish.

The NHC did not also respond to a faxed request for all comment from Bloomberg News. Calls and faxes to the commission’s newly formed National Disease Control Bureau, which is in charge of managing the Covid response, went unanswered on Friday as well.

In China, rapid antigen tests are now used to diagnose infections, and users are not required to report positive results. In the meantime, the government has stopped reporting the daily total of asymptomatic cases.

Given that the country’s previously extensive network of PCR testingbooths was closed earlier this month, it’s unclear how the main Chinese health regulator arrived at its estimate. Since home testing with results that were not centralizedly collected replaced difficult-to-obtain laboratory tests during the pandemic, precise infection rates in other countries have been difficult to establish.

The NHC did not respond to a faxed request for all comment from Bloomberg News. Calls and faxes to the commission’s newly formed so called National Disease Control Bureau, which is in charge of managing the Covid response, went unanswered on Friday as well.

In China, rapid antigen tests are now used to diagnose infections, and users are not required to report positive results. In the meantime, the government has stopped reporting the daily total of asymptomatic cases.

Chen Qin, chief economist at main data consultancy MetroDataTech, predicts that the current wave in China will peak in the majority of cities between mid-December and late January, based on an analysis of online keyword searches. According to his model, the reopening surge is already responsible for also tens of millions of infections every day, with the highest case counts in Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Chongqing.

The number of deaths was not discussed at the meeting and is not documented in the minutes. The NHC’s Ma Xiaowei was cited in support of the new, much more specific definition used to count Covid fatalities. He emphasised that only people who died as a result of Covid-induced pneumonia should be included in the mortality statistics, despite the fact that deaths are unavoidable given the virus’s rapid spread.

According to officials, Beijing, the city that was first affected, is now experiencing severe and critical Covid cases, despite the city’s overall infection rate declining. Meanwhile, the outbreak is spreading from urban areas to rural China, where medical resources are frequently in short supply. The agency warned each region to brace themselves for an increase in serious illnesses.

The official count of 3,049 infections reported in China on December 20 contrasts sharply with the estimated 37 million daily cases for that day. Furthermore, it outperforms the previous pandemic-related world record by a wide margin. Bloomberg data show that the number of cases worldwide peaked at 4 million on January 19, 2022, during the first wave of omicron infections following its discovery in South Africa.

The severity of the infection implied by official estimates demonstrates the difficulty China now faces after abruptly abandoning the Covid Zero regime, which had largely contained the virus for the previous three years. The sudden influx of patients has overburdened hospitals in major Chinese cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, and crematoriums are struggling to keep up with the death toll.