IIT Kanpur warns the masses: 4th Covid wave to begin in June
There has been a dramatic loss in Human life due to the pandemic of Covid-19. The pandemic has presented a challenge to the world. Public health has been diminishing ever since. People are at risk of falling into poverty. Social and economic disruptions are at their peak. The number of undernourished people has been increased by 132 million.
A study by IIT Kanpur suggests that the fourth wave of Covid will hit, around June 2022. The peak will be around August mid-end. To make the predictions, the researchers opted for a statistical model of the study. The study shows that the fourth wave will last approximately four months. The severity of the situation will depend upon the vaccination status around the country.
The effect of the first, second, and booster dose will determine the possibility and severity of the infection. Various other issues regarding the degree of the infection will also depend on this factor. The research is led by the Mathematics department. The Research Heads are Abara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar, and Shalabh. India was severely affected by Omicron. But, the number of cases is depleting.
According to the study, the situation will worsen in the coming period. However, the study hasn’t been peer-reviewed at the moment. The study is based on the data collected in Zimbabwe. There is a moderate chance that a new variant of this virus will arrive. And, it may have an intense impact on society. The data collected, indicated that the fourth wave will arrive after 936 days from the initial virus date.
Therefore, from the initial date of January 30, 2020, the peak will arrive around June 22, 2022. The virus will hit its peak in August 2022 and will last up to the end of October. Many countries have witnessed the third wave of Covid. The predictions regarding the third wave were also based on the data of Zimbabwe. Countries like Zimbabwe and South Africa are facing the fourth wave of Covid.
Therefore, the data collected indicates that the predictions are likely to be true. With the end of the third wave, the data collected previously stands corrected. There is a likelihood of a new variant. The severity will depend upon the variant. The pandemic has taken a backseat because of the ongoing crisis between Russia and Ukraine. The number of positive cases has declined in the country. But, if struck with another wave, how is the Indian Economy handle the situation? The threat of the pandemic still subsides.
The virus has not been eradicated till now. Even though the number of cases is decreasing, the virus will bounce back once again. The country has seen some relaxation after the decrease in cases. But now there are, again, chances for a new variant. Omicron was predicted to be the deadliest variant, can the new variant be more dangerous than that? The study by the researchers of the Indian Institute of Technology of Kanpur was posted on Medrxiv.
The scientists of IIT Kanpur have predicted the Covid wave three times in a row. The situation in the country shows that their predictions were always correct. It is suspected that Omicron BA.2 could become the cause for the fourth wave. The cases regarding Omicron BA.2 are gaining momentum in various countries, including India. It is nothing but a sub-variant of the existing Omicron virus. The new variant is also known as Stealth Omicron. It will spread faster than Delta and Omicron combined.
This variant has been spreading rapidly in the past few days. The symptoms of this variant also differ from the symptoms of the other variants. Early symptoms of the new variant include dizziness. There could be many reasons for dizziness, but if the situation continues, a doctor should be consulted. The other symptom that people should look out for is fatigue. It can be the first symptom as stated by doctor Angelique Coetzee from South Africa.
People could have similar symptoms to the earlier Covid variants as well. They should look out for abdominal symptoms. They may feel feverish, a loss of taste, cough and cold, runny nose or headaches. Body aches along with shortness of breath can also be seen. Nausea, diarrhea, and vomiting are also associated with the new variant. Stomach complaints are also seen as a response from patients infected with the new variant. The reason for this is associated with the fact that the virus enters through the nose or the mouth.
It proceeds to the lungs or the intestine in some cases. Therefore, different symptoms are observed in different patients. Over the last twenty-four hours, a total of 306,064 new cases had been reported in India. However, the same is a decline of 8% from the average cases reported daily. The deaths have also been lowered to 439. But, there has been an increase in the weekly positive cases that have risen to 17.03%. Reports have shown that, 65% of people vaccinated with a single dose of Covidshield were able to neutralize the effect of Omicron.
The impact of Covaxin on generating hybrid immunity is still under observation. Countries like Russia and Ukraine dealing with emergencies are exposed to the effect of the new variant. Recovery assistance is needed in these countries. It is time to globally support these nations as they are at their most vulnerable. Developing countries are also facing a downfall in their economies after the strike of three waves. If fought together, the economic and health catastrophes could be decreased.
Countries should come together in this time of crisis. They should pool their expertise and resources to achieve the goal of eradicating the virus together. Long-term plans need to be made. Social protection needs to be prioritized. This is an urgent matter which needs to be looked into. Only then can the livelihoods of the people can be protected. People have stopped wearing masks with the thought that Covid is over. But, this is not the truth.
The new variant could be even more harmful than all the existing variants. Precautions are to be taken. The situation could get worse than the second wave, during which the highest number of deaths were observed. People should follow the Covid Norms strictly. Social distancing is a must. Only if these measures are followed can the new normal be ensured to be a better one.
